Lions preview and Prediction for week 2 at Arizona

When you look at the schedule as a whole, and you are trying to make a case for the Lions to go to the playoffs, this game in Arizona becomes a must win.  The Lions cant qualify for the playoffs by winning on Sunday but a loss could eventually keep them out.  Its very early in the season but just like last week against the Vikings, I believe the Lions are overall the better team, but playing on the road will make it tough, especially in a place you haven't won in 20 years.  That includes last year, when the lions travelled to the desert lost 38-10, and walked away with their worst played game since a 2009 beat down by the Ravens, that was a 2-14 Lions team who started Donte Culpepper.  So needless to say there are some demons that need to be exercised this week.  As for Ndamukong Suh, did he go low, yes.  Should he have put his shoulder into Sullivan's shoulder instead, yes.  But all this talk about how it was from behind is just absurd, and I think Jeff Saturday sounded like a cry baby on ESPN talking about the Lions being bullies, and then having the nerve to go on and pick the Lions to win the game.  We fortunately have Suh available for this week, so let's move on and take a look at five major keys to the game:

Peterson vs. Johnson:  There's been a lot made of Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson taking some snaps on offense this week, and while that doesn't really concern Calvin Johnson, it goes to show how dynamic of a player Peterson truly is.  Arizona gave up the 5th fewest passing yards per game last year and held quarterbacks' to an NFL low passer rating of just 71.2.  Last year, Matthew Stafford had a passer rating of 37.6, while throwing three interceptions and completing less then half of his throws.  One of the main reasons Arizona's pass defense is so stout is because of Patrick Peterson.  If he is able to single cover Calvin Johnson, the rest of the Lions receivers, tight ends and running backs will feel the squeeze.  If Calvin can shake loose from Peterson for a big play, or consistently get open on intermediate routes, the Cardinals will have to alter their game plan to shift coverage his way.

Reggie Bush effect:  On the other hand, Arizona's run defense was 5th worst in the league a season ago and now the Lions seem to have players on the offensive line and at the running back position who can take advantage of that.  While bush's 77 yard touchdown catch was the type of big play the Lions were missing a season ago, I'd argue the 91 yards he racked up on the ground were equally important in the lions maintaining a semblance of balance in their offense.  With his break out performance last week it will be interesting to see how teams game plan to stop the Lions going forward, starting with the Cardinals this Sunday.  You cant double team everyone.

Arizona's O-line vs. Detroit's D-line:  The Cardinals last week gave up four sacks, five additional QB hits, and Carson Palmer fumbled the ball twice and threw an interception.  While most of the pressure last week came from the edges, Detroit relies on its push up the middle to collapse the pocket allowing the outside rush to cave in on the quarterback.  Last week against Minnesota, the Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder was able to roll out and escape pressure at times because he is a solid athlete.  This week the results should be different as Carson Palmer is basically a statue.  However, if you don't get to Palmer he will absolutely pick you apart so it will be imperative that the Lions make it uncomfortable for the Arizona QB on a regular basis.

Fitzgerlad vs. Detroit's secondary:  Darius Slay had a mixed bag of results last week during his first NFL start, before being benched late in favor of veteran Rashean Mathis.  Slay deflected a pass to DeAndre Levy for an interception, but was beat deep once and called for one pass interference penalty.  The same criticism could be placed on Chris Houston, but this was against Jerome Simpson and Greg Jennings, two smaller, quicker wide receivers.  The test this week will come from big physical receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd.  The Lions should be able to slow down Arizona's running game so the secondary will be tested early and often in the desert.   

Kicking game:  Neither kicking unit had a perfect week last week.  Detroit rookie punter Sam Martin dropped a hold of the Lions first field goal attempt of the season, while Jay Feeley missed a 53 yard attempt and the Cardinals lost by three.  Which unit rebounds and executes this week will most likely go a long way to determining the winner. 


Other notes:

• As far as injuries are concerned, Larry Fitzgerald is listed as questionable by Arizona but expect him to start.  The Lions ruled  Jason Fox out so Hilliard will start in place of Fox at right tackle.  Louis Delmas and Nick Fairely as questionable.  I expect Delmas to start and Fairley returned to practice Friday and appears to be on course to start as well.

• Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson got off to slow starts last week, Johnson caught just four balls for 37 yards while Peterson had 93 yards on 18 carries.

• Teams that start the season 0-2 make it to the playoffs only about 12% of the time, whereas teams that have started 2-0 have made it 66% of the time.  That's what's facing the Cardinals and Lions this week.

Prediction: 
The Lions Defense should be able to control the running game and apply pressure on Carson Palmer but it will be on the offense to take care of the ball, open up running lanes and make enough big plays to squeak by the Cardinals.  A late FG by David Akers wins it for Detroit 23-20.

Tigers starting pitchers bounce back, take two of three from White Sox

Losers of five of their last seven games, The Tigers limped into Chicago to face the lowly White Sox for a three game set.  Lets break down each game:

Game 1:  White Sox 5, Tigers 1.
Max Scherzer was looking for win number twenty but the Tigers did not get off to the kind of start they wanted to by any means.  Miguel Cabrera, for the second time this season, was tossed during the middle of an at bat in the first inning.  Cabrera was hit on the back knee by a slider thrown by White Sox starter Chris Sale, the problem being that Cabrera seemed to offer at the pitch and home plate umpire Brian Gorman called it a strike.  I actually agree with the call, but Cabrera wanted Gorman to ask the first base ump for a second opinion, but there was no appeal. We don't know what was said but after the next pitch Cabrera was ejected and, to no one's surprise, Jim Leyland was ejected shortly after.  This incident seemed to take the sails (no pun intended) out of the Tigers offense.  The Tigers managed just four hits and their lone run came courtesy of an 8th inning homer by Victor Martinez, who added to his torrid post all star game pace.  Mean while, Scherzer struggled to control his fast ball early in the game and left a couple pitches up in the zone as Konerko singled in two runs off an elevated fastball in Max's 31 pitch first inning.  After settling down for a couple of innings, Scherzer was his own worst enemy in the 4th as he threw a ball wide of first trying to throw out Phegley after he tapped the ball just onto the grass.  That put the White Sox up 5-0 and that was more then enough for Chris Sale.  It was Max's shortest outing of the year and Sale struck out eight over eight innings with Martinez's home run the only real threat of offense allowed all night.

Game 2:  Tigers 9, White Sox 1.
In a now pivotal game for the Tigers to get back on the winning track, as the Indians were now just 4.5 game back in the central, the Tigers offense showed signs of life off the young Chicago starter Eric Johnson.  The story of the game can be told through just four players, Prince Fielder, Alex Avila, Conor Gillaspie and Rick Porcello.  Porcello was solid early and outstanding late, at one point retiring 14 consecutive Chicago hitters in recoding his first ever complete game.  He needed just 105 pitches, 77 for strikes and walked just one while scattering seven hits.  Meanwhile, Fielder and Avila combined for eight of the Tigers fifteen hits, and they either drove in or scored six of the Tigers nine runs.  Fielder hit an absolute rocket of a line drive over the right field wall for his 23rd home run of the year and he is now just 1 RBI away from 100 on the year.  Conor Gillaspie on the other hand had a night to forget.  The Chicago rookie was charged with three errors but I personally would have charged him for the error ultimately charged to Konerko.  It's not easy to beat any team giving up 5 unearned runs, let alone the best offensive team in all of baseball.

Game 3: Tigers 1, White Sox 0.
Anibal Sanchez stayed around just long enough to see the offense push a single run across to help him pick up his career high 14th win of the season.  I remember thinking around the 6th inning that Sanchez hadn't really been sharp but had still thrown six shutout innings to that point.  He got better as the game went on and was down right filthy in the six, seventh and for his lone out in the eighth as five of his last seven outs were strikeouts.  Sanchez finished with 10 k's and lowered his AL best ERA down to 2.50.  Quintana was the hard luck loser again, he has gotten very little help all year.  He has 17 no decisions, is getting less then four runs a game of support from his offense, and his closer has blown four saves that would have been wins for him.  I was impressed with his cutter and how he mixed location inside and outside and spotted his curve enough to keep the Tigers off balance most of the night.  The Tigers clawed their run off Matt Lindstrom in the 8th after back to back singles by Prince and Martinez, Omar Infante dribbled a slider between third and short slowly enough to allow prince to get home without a throw.  Jose Veras and Drew Smiley came in and struck out Konerko and Dunn respectively before Beniot pitched a 1-2-3 9th for his 18th save. 

The Tigers ended what felt like an awful trip just under .500, going 4-5. The Tigers played two of the hottest teams in the AL, as the Red Sox are 14-4 and the Royals are 13-5 in their respective last 18 games and Chicago is a .500 team at home.  All things considered, they salvaged the road trip by taking two of three from Chicago and if Perez doesn't take Verlander deep in Kansas City, we might be talking about winning the trip right now.  The Tigers saw five left handed starters and were just 1-4 in those game. I'd say Lester had the best start, followed very closely by Sale, then Quintana, Chen and Duffy.  Max Scherzer was unfortunate to be the opposing starter against both Lester and Sale.  Detroit heads back to Comerica with a 6.5 game lead over Cleveland with only 16 to play.  Magic number is 11 and counting.  The biggest issues to get squared away over this home stand are getting JV, Fister, and Cabrera back on track heading into the postseason.     

 

Series notes:

• Iglesias saved a run in the 5th inning of game 3 by keeping Luery Garcia's tapper up the middle in the infield, even if he didn't get the out it was a huge play. I saw him rush a play for the first time in a Tigers uniform though, as he had time to gather and throw Garcia out in the first inning of game 3.
• We knew Iglesias wouldn't keep up the offensive pace he set while with the red sox earlier this year but in a Tigers uniform he has been better then expected with 33 hits in 113 at bats, for a .292 average. 
• Both Jackson and Iglesias hid hitting streaks ended in Chicago.
• Castellanos had two hits this series and just missed a grand slam off Quintana.  He just looks like a big time big league hitter.
• Jose Alveraz pitched well in three innings in relief of Scherzer in game 1, striking out the side in the 5th. 
• Santiago made a great play to dive and pick the ball at third and throw out the speedy Viciedo.
• Nate jones has closer stuff for the white sox out of their bullpen.  He was nasty finishing off game 1.
• Porcello caught a line drive that almost took his head off and saved two runs in the second inning of game 2.
• Larry Vanover was very inconsistent calling his strike zone all game long.  It took me a eight posts to complain about the officiating, that's pretty good, lets keep track if there are any longer streaks. Doubt it.

The Tigers now head home for a ten game home stand to face the Royals, Mariners, and White Sox.

Tigers out slug Royals, but lose series 2-1.

Which team left Kansas City after taking two of three between the Tigers and Royals?  Total runs, Tigers 21, Royals 11.  Total hits, Tigers 37, Royals 28.  Walks taken, Tigers 11, Royals 3.  Strikeouts, Tigers 19, Royals 22.  Wins, Tigers 1, Royals 2.  It was a hot weekend in Kansas City with temperatures in the upper 80's at night and nearly 100 for Sunday's afternoon game, and the Tigers hitters were scorching early and often in game one but the Royals got the last laugh, winning the last two games to take the three game set.  The Tigers didn't play poorly, but the Royals came away with two big home runs that created separation in games two and three and it seemed like the tigers used up all their offense in game one.  Let's take a closer look at each game:

Game 1 - Tigers 16, Royals 2:
For the second time in two games the bench was emptied in the late innings and the starters got to rest early, though this time the Tigers were on the winning end of a blowout as they
pounded the Royals for 26 hits and 16 runs while Anibal Sanchez was dominate, holding the Royals to one run while scattering seven hits over seven innings.  Sanchez picked up his 13th win of the season while lowering his league leading era to 2.61, but it was the offense who stole the show, namely Omar Infante and Andy Dirks, who had 5 hits a piece.  Infante drove in six runs and just missed a grand slam as the ball bounced off the top of the wall and back in play.  The Tigers had six doubles but the other twenty hits were all singles.  The Tigers as a club were 13-26 with runners in scoring position.  James Shields took the loss for the Royals in his shortest outing of the season.

Game 2 - Royals 4, Tigers 3:
A night after pounding out 26 hits, the Tigers looked to be on their way to another big offensive night as the Royals starter Danny Duffy was wild with his command in the first
inning and the Tigers got on the board early with a Prince Fielder RBI single.  But Duffy settled down into and finished his effectively wild start by only allowing two earned runs over four and a third innings.  The Royals bullpen took care of the rest, as their offense clawed their way back into the game before Perez's big shot off Verlander in the 6th gave the Royals a 4-2 lead. The Kansas City bullpen did the rest as Davis, Smith, Hochevar and Holland limited the tigers to just three hits over the last four and two thirds to close the game out and even the series 1-1.

Game 3 - Royals 5, Tigers 2:
After knocking Bruce Chen around for six earned runs just three weeks ago at Comerica Park, the Kansas City lefty was able to limit the Tigers to two earned on five hits over seven innings on just 81 pitches.  I like to look at pitch counts to determine how efficient a pitcher's outing  is.  15-17 pitches an inning is my barometer for an efficient inning,  under 15 is great, 15-17 is efficient and 18 and over is not.  Chen averaged 11.5 pitches and inning, that's extremely efficient.  Compare that with Doug Fister, the tigers starter, who actually tossed a pretty good game but labored through six and a third innings tossing 111 pitches, over 17.5 per inning.  Detroit was leading the game and Fister was in line for the win before he gave up what seemed to be a harmless infield single to Gordon, then Bonifacio followed that up with a sharp single of his own and Hosmer cleared the bases giving the Royals a lead they would not relinquish.  Herrera came in and was really impressive in his inning of work, and Holland closed the door for save number 40 as the Tigers managed only six total hits.

Series notes:

• The Tigers bullpen pitched pretty well, only allowing one run over four and two thirds innings over the three games.
• The royals only stole two bases and were actually thrown out twice and picked off once, though it felt like their bases running led to a handful of runs
• Prince Fielder threw runners out at the plate in consecutive games
• Bonifacio and Butler seemed to get hits every time they came up.  They were on base a combined ten times in the three games.
• Jose Iglesias hit his third home run of the year in the series finale, but he looks very hobbled with those shin splints.
• Verlander located well and his velocity was better, Perez just happened to run into a fast ball and that's baseball.
• Castellanos got the start in game 2 against the lefty Duffy.  He has a smooth swing like a lefty, and great bat speed through the zone.
• The tigers hit more routine fly balls the last two games then I have seen all season. 
• Alburqurque bounced back from his Boston debacle with a nice inning of work, striking out two of the three batter he faced, though he did throw one 5 feet over Avila's head to the backstop.
• Royals bullpen is tough, the Tigers saw at least four different guys throw 98mph or better out of the pen this series.
• Cleveland now sits just 5.5 games behind the Tigers, with 19 games remaining.

On to Chicago to face the struggling White Sox in a three game set.

After crazy first half, Lions pull away from Vikings, open 1-0.

These were my notes from the first five minutes:  Running game looks good.  Stafford looks sharp.  Have to settle for a field goal.  Botched hold.  Adrian Peterson, untouched.  Season over.  Every single Lions fan is lying if the say that thought didn't at least cross their mind when Peterson took the opening play for the Vikings offense 78 yards for a TD.  However, Peterson's carry turned out to be the anomaly in my opening notes.  The Lions continued to run the ball effectively, Stafford was accurate and decisive and the Detroit Lions dominated the Vikings, though the score was not as lopsided as it  could and should have been.  The Lions left 18 points on the board in the first half, a botched hold on a field goal attempt, the Calvin Johnson rule forcing the Lions to settle for a field goal instead of a touchdown, Scheffler's drop at the 5 yard line going into the end zone leading to another field goal, and the Suh penalty erasing Levy's interception return for a touchdown.  This could have easily been a 52-24 game and that score line is honestly closer to how it felt.  The Vikings offense ran less then 10 effective plays all game and the Lions seemed to move up and down the field with ease.  Now they just need to stop being their own worst enemy.  Lets look at how each position group fared:
 
Quarterbacks:
I've previously stated that Matthew Stafford's accuracy would be the biggest turning point for the Lions this year and after game 1, so far so good.  Stafford was 28/43 for a 65% completion percentage, which is right in line with his completion percentage from 2011 when the Lions won 10 games and made the playoffs.  If you take away the four drops, the four passes batted down at the line and the two balls that were intentionally thrown away, Stafford's line is 32/37, that's 86%.  Stafford did a great job spreading the ball around as eight different players caught at least one pass, he took what the Minnesota defense gave him and didn't force anything.  I doubt, however, we will see much more read option this year from Matthew.

Running Backs:
Reggie bush was good in New Orleans, but it never felt like he was comfortable there.  He was good in Miami but the Dolphins weren't a very good team and he was a somewhat forgotten man as he was being misused as a feature back.  After one game in Detroit it feels like a perfect match for both player and team.  The Lions implement a scheme which best takes advantage of Reggie's ability to run between the tackles, bounce it outside, or catch the ball in space and make things happen.  He did a little bit of all those things to the tune of 191 yards and a touchdown, which could have easily been three had his knee not hit the turf while extending the ball inside the 1 yard line two separate times during the contest.  It will be interesting to see how teams adjust to the dual threat weapon the lions now possess.  Joique Bell played well in Bush's stead.  He was most effective as a check down receiver and short yardage back.

Wide Receivers:
This group had a lot of question marks coming out of the preseason but overall they were solid.  Calvin Johnson changes everything, evidenced by how deep the Minnesota safeties lineup on nearly every snap.  That obviously opens up space for Burleson, Edwards, and Durham to run free underneath and make plays.  Burleson was impressive and looked fresh, coming off a preseason where he looked old and slow.  Still Johnson is the straw that stirs the drink and though his official stat line wasn't overly impressive, 4 catches for 37 yards, he really controlled the game as Minnesota rolled 2-3 people his way nearly every play.  Had CJ actually hauled in the two passes in the end zone that were inches away from being scores, his line looks much more Calvin like.  It was surprising that Broyles was on the inactive list, he should help this group upon his return.

Tight Ends:
I said it would happen sooner rather than later this season, it took 28 minutes.  Pettigrew's fumble in the 2nd quarter could have been absolutely costly had the Vikings gone down and scored before the half (more on this later).  After all the talk about how hard he has worked to fix his short comings this offseason, the preseason did nothing to alleviate the fears that Pettigrew is just not a reliable option in the passing game anymore.  Neither is Scheffler, unfortunately.  Tony dropped the only pass thrown his way, after beating his defender and getting open inside the 10 yards line, the perfectly thrown ball bounced right off Scheffler's hands on what was most likely a touchdown.  These two were big weapons for the Lions during their playoff run two years ago but their collective play has fallen off.  Pettigrew is still a plus run blocker at the tight end position but Scheffler's reps look like they could be headed to Joseph Fauria.  Fauria actually caught the ball, three times, one for a touchdown.  He is a size mismatch, has soft hands and should see his role expand as the season goes on.

Offensive Line:
Another group full of question marks going into the season, with three new starters finding their way against a very strong front 4 for Minnesota and the Lions should walk away ecstatic of the collective play out of the offensive line as the opened up big running lanes, kept Stafford upright for most of the game and all but neutralized Allen and Robison on the outside.  Reiff out muscled Allen all game and Warford provided good push for Bush and Bell.  Unfortunately, Jason Fox suffered a pulled groin in the first quarter and Corey Hillard had to come in and finish the game but there was no drop off in production from this group.  The Lions have the making of a very good group up front going forward.
 
Defensive Line:
The Lions have built their defense from the line out and for this defense to be successful, they need the line to be very disruptive.  For most of the game, they were just that.  Outside of the 78 yard scamper to open the game, the Lions held Peterson to just 15 yards on 17 carries!  That is an amazing number against the clear cut best running back in the NFL.  It mostly due to the lack of any running lanes as the front four penetrated and clogged up the hole all game.  The pass rush was solid, though the Lions will tell you they didn't get home as often as the would have liked, but three sacks and six pressures are nothing to sneeze at.  We know Ponder is no Manning, but the Lions held him to a 63.1 passer rating, third lowest in the league for week 1.  Nick Fairley recorded 1.5 sacks and was a beast up front all game.
 
Linebackers:
This group was a question mark for me going into the season but, again outside of the long run, this unit played really well.  Tulloch's interception was the biggest play of the game in my opinion.  After a deflating Pettigrew fumble, the Vikings were driving, leading 14-6 and if they score at touchdown to go up 21-6 at half we are looking at a different ball game completely.  Credit to Suh, obviously, for hitting Ponder's arm while he was throwing but Tulloch has a knack for being in the right place at the right time.  DeAndre Levy played one of his best games in a Lions uniform.  He was everywhere making tackles, keeping Peterson in check and should have had a pick six.  Ashlee palmer made a couple nice stops in the backfield and played the run well, the Vikings aren't the type of team that can effectively take advantage of him in the passing game so that still remains to be seen but overall a good game for the collective front seven.

Defensive backs:
Still some issues in the secondary that are going to have to be fixed.  Jerome Simpson had a field day and Ponder was able to complete a few deep balls that could have been more problematic then they turned out to be.  The defensive backfield will have to be much better with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Brandon Marshall on the schedule the next few weeks.  Darius Slay had an up and down first start.   He gave up a few completions to Simpson but also helped force the interception by Levy.  He was ultimately replaced by Rashean Mathis in the 4th quarter as Schwartz decided to go with more experience to finish the game but Slay will more then likely be the starter come next week and just needs more experience, but I liked his competitiveness and physical play.  Houston was solid but not spectacular, Delmas was good against the run but had a stupid penalty that a leader simply can not take.  Quinn's interception sealed the game but he was quiet otherwise.  Bill Bentley dropped an interception that would have most likely gone back for six in the second quarter.

Special Teams:  
The coverage units did their job but Martin's hands and leg were mostly the story.  First, the good. Martins kickoff's consistently sailed out of the end zone, preventing any threat of a return and his fourth quarter punt was expertly downed at the one yard line by Michael Spurlock.  Now the bad, the botched hold on Akers first field goal attempt was most likely nerve related and probably wouldn't have seemed so bad had Peterson not romped for 78 yards 25 seconds later, but for now we will forgive him, since it didn't cost us the game, but that has to be cleaned up.  Akers looked good on his two kicks, and Spurlock was average in his five punt returns.

Other Notes:

• Ndomukong Suh's low hit on John Sullivan, which drew a 15 yard penalty, has his status for next weeks game in question as the league looks into the play.
• Lions +2 turnover margin after week 1.
• Ziggy Ansah didn't start but played about half the snaps and helped bottle up Peterson and recorded a half sack in his first game.
• Reggie Bush dislocated his thumb but returned to the game and should start next week.
• Minnesota was tagged for two huge penalties in the 4th quarter, one roughing the passer and one pass interference, leading to Detroit's final touchdown.

On to Arizona for Week 2, check back later this week for a prediction...will the Lions be 2-0?

Lions Week 1 Prediction Vs. the Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings and superstar running back Adrian Peterson are coming to Detroit to kick off the regular season in a game which highlights two of the best pure football players in the world.  In a recent poll by ESPN analysts, Peterson was voted the third best offensive player in the NFL, one of the two people ahead of him was Detroit Lions Wide receiver Calvin Johnson.  While every single game matters in the NFL, the matchup with the Vikings in week one is pivotal for the Lions for a number of reasons.  First, the Vikings are a divisional opponent, a win Sunday gives the Lions the early division lead.  Second, the Viking were a playoff team a year ago, though a surprising result to be sure, but if the Lions have any hope of making the playoffs this year they need to be better then the Vikings.  I personally feel the Lions have more overall talent on both sides of the football, and are playing at home, so this constitutes a must win.  That doesn't mean it will be easy.  If the Lions offense struggles early and allows the Vikings to ride Peterson into the 4th quarter, expect this game to be in jeopardy.  The Lions run defense in the preseason was outstanding and if they can make the Vikings one dimensional, either by playing with the lead or by bottling up Peterson, they should come away with the victory.  Here are my five keys to watch throughout the game:

Staffords accuracy:
I talked about Stafford accuracy in my season preview as the piece that will make or break the season so we might as well lead with that.  If Stafford can be accurate on third down, keep drives alive and then be accurate in the red zone, finishing off with touchdowns instead of feild goals, the Lions should win this game.
 
Contain Peterson, limit big plays:
It seems easy to say if you stop Adrian Peterson you stop the Vikings but they have added some nice pieces on the outside and this will be the first time we get to see how Ponder will work with former packer Greg Jennings and newly drafted Cordarrelle Patterson, along with Kyle Rudolph who is one of the best young pass catching tight ends in the league.  If you are able to contain Peterson, which of course is job number one, you must still finish the series by putting pressure on Ponder and covering well down the field.

Special teams coverage:
Last year the Vikings came into Detroit and stole a game thanks in part to both a kickoff and punt return for a touchdown.  The Lions have focused on special teams coverage units heavily this off season, time to put them to the test. 

Detroit's O-line vs. Minnesota's D-line:
Detroit will be starting three new pieces on their offensive line.  Both tackles, Riley Reiff and presumably Jason Fox, will have their hands full as the Vikings have one of the best sets of 4-3 defensive ends in the game with Jarred Allen and Brian Robison.  Rookie Larry Warford seems to have won the starting right guard spot and will be key in preventing push up the middle into Stafford's face.  Keeping Stafford upright and giving him enough time to go through his reads will be paramount if the Lions are to be victorious. 

Tackle, tackle, tackle:
Peterson is one of the toughest backs in the league, known for breaking tackles at will so making sound, form tackles on him and not letting him pinball off and run through arm tackles is a must.  From there the Lions must do a better job of open field tackling then they did the first few weeks of the preseason.  Their defense at home can be a force with the crowd noise behind them, but if Minnesota gets big plays it will be mostly because of missed tackles.

Other miscellaneous notes:

• It looks as though Ziggy Ansah will be playing after being cleared to return from the concussion he suffered nearly two weeks ago.  I know this is a must win but I might sit him for fear of another concussion knocking him out for 6 weeks or worse.  Javid Best anyone?
• Let the Peterson vs. Johnson yardage watch officially begin.  Each week we will keep track of where these two are compared to one another and compared to their pace from last year.

Prediction:
Lions take this one 27-20, starting the season off 1-0.

Tiger's Closing in on AL Central Crown

Of course my first post on the Tigers comes a day after one of the most epic beat downs I've watched unfold.  For a city that is as emotionally unstable as Detroit, when it comes to over reacting to every win and every loss, the sheer number of games in the baseball season can be quite draining.  But for some reason, last nights loss, while embarrassing, almost feels like the outlier that you can just laugh off as something that could not possibly  happen again.  Baseball is a weird sport as far as wins and losses are concerned.  If you win 55% of your games, you're a 90 win team and a world series contender.  In basketball or hockey if you win 55% of your games, you probably make the playoffs but are not an elite team.  Football is the same way, 55% is 9 wins, maybe sneaking you into the playoffs but in many cases your on the outside looking in.  The tigers are 29-17 since the all star break, but have only won 7 out of 13 series.  They had a stretch where they won 16 of 17 including 12 straight but are just 13-14 since, winning just 3 of 8 series.  They have had some lows, Wednesday night in Boston, being swept in a double header at home by the Royals, and being dominated by the A's for 35 out of 36 innings, again at home.  However none of those losses have lingered because every time they lose a couple games in a row, they come back with a big walk off win, or a shut-out or a series sweep that re-affirms their dominance.  Magical moments like Avila's home run in the 9th in Cleveland, Cabrera taking Rivera deep twice in New York, and Torii Hunter's comeback walk off vs. the A's come to mind.  I say the word consistent a lot, because I think in sports consistency plays a major role in success.  The one thing the Tigers have done well all season is beat the Indians.  If they weren't 7-0 vs. the Indians since the break the race for the AL Central is much closer and everyone would be concerned about us slipping out of the playoffs.  As it now stands, the Tigers are 6.5 games up on Cleveland with only 22 games left, so it would take Berlin Wall type collapse for the Tigers to not win the central.  Tigers fans would feel better about our playoff hopes if we were winning more consistently as we head in October.  Let's now take a look at how the position groups have fared since the break:

Starting pitchers:
Before last nights circus, Porcello had been 4-1 since the break, Sanchez is 5-1, Scherzer 6-1, Fister 5-2, and then there's our ace, Justin Verlander at 2-4.  Verlander is officially a question mark, where would you start him in a playoff series if you're Jim Leyland?  Is it his velocity, location, release point, confidence?  Is he washed up?  Fortunately the Tigers have the deepest and best starting staff in all of baseball.  The "other 4" have consistently given the tigers offense a chance to win games.  Scherzer has received a lot of the headlines with that sparkling win percentage, and rightfully so, but they collectively have been great, 28 of their combined 36 starts in the second half have been quality starts.   

Bullpen:
I was actually going to write some nice things about our bullpen and talk about how they have improved with the additions of Bonderman and Veras and then the Boston massacre happened.  In all seriousness, with the consistency of Smyly, the addition of Jose Veras, the emergence of Bruce Rondon and Benoit settling into the closers role, the once suspect bullpen has been much better during the second half.  There are still some pieces that need to be ironed out if they are going to help this team come playoff time.  Alburquerque has a plus fastball and slider but his control is almost non-existent. Coke hasn't been great, okay he's been bad, but he has the stuff and experience to turn it around, and we will need a second left hander out of the bullpen come playoff time.  Bonderman seems to be an innings eater guy when were either losing or way ahead.  Still, if you have Smyly, Rondon, and Veras for the 7th and 8th innings and Benoit for the 9th, the Tigers should be in good shape come October.

Catchers:
This is a position that has seen a lot of moving parts in the second half.  After a below average first half, Alex Avila was starting to turn things around at the plate before suffering a bevy of injuries, most notably a concussion that landed him on the 7 day DL and into a rehab stint in Toledo.  Brayan Pena has been a nice surprise in his stead, batting over .300 this year while allowing Victor Martinez to remain the DH and not take the wear and tear put on the back up catcher.  It was interesting to see Martinez catch a few games as the Tigers took to inter league play against the Mets.  I wouldn't be surprised, if the Tigers make it to the world series, to see Martinez catching in the National League ball parks in order to keep his red hot bat, which has led the AL in hits and average since the all star break, in the line up.

Corner Infielders: 
What's left to say about the season that Miguel Cabrera is putting together.  People are saying he might be the greatest right handed batter of all time, I'd say slow down.  Miggy has been great this year, last year, every year and I think people will remember him as one of the best right handed hitters of all time but lets let him finish his career before we start trying to slot him in terms of historical context and just enjoy the ride he's on right now.  However, Cabrera's health should be the Tigers number one priority for the remainder of the season.  Fielder's mid season struggle was well documented in the media, along with his personal life, but he has rebounded nicely since august where hit .289 with a .813 slugging percentage for the month, both are his best since his torrid April start. 

Middle Infielders:
The biggest question of the year for the Tigers will be raised at the very end of September when Jhonny Peralta is eligible to return from his 50 game suspension.  We're going to cross that bridge when it gets closer but for now we get to enjoy the silky smooth play of Jose Iglesias.  This kid is unreal defensively, and I like his swing, he has the potential to be an offensive contributor but really he could get away hitting .250 with the glove he brings to the park everyday.  Omar Infante spent some time on the DL but I really think he is one of the under-rated, overlooked contributors.  He's hitting .353 since the break.  When guys like Infante and Iglesias are getting on base, this team is really tough to beat.  Infante will also be a great mentor for a guy like Iglesias to learn from as they have become one of the best double play combinations in all of baseball.

Outfield:
You haven't seen as many spectacular plays from Austin Jackson this year but that's because he makes a lot of things look easy, he covers ground about as well as any center fielder in the game today and he's only 26, in his 4th year in the big leagues.  Torii hunter has been a big time acquisition, not only from his production on the field but for the leadership and enthusiasm he brings to the clubhouse every day.  You couldn't ask for a better mentor for a guy like Austin Jackson then a 9 time Gold Glove winner.  Compare Torii's first three full seasons in the big leagues to Austin Jackson's first three full seasons and you'll see Torii had an average of .264 and a slugging percentage of .431, where as Austin has .280 average and a slugging percentage of .416.  I'm not going to go as far as to say Austin Jackson will develop the kind of power Torii Hunter has shown or that he will win 9 gold gloves but he has the talent to be a very good center fielder for years to come.  The left field spot was essentially given to Andy Dirks this year after a stellar 2012 campaign but he has really regressed this season, opening the door for the likes of a Tuiasosopo or potentially Nick Castellanos to come in and take the job from him.  Dirks is solid defensively though, which is really the only reason he hasn't been completely removed from the line up. 

Manager/Coaches/Front Office:
Jim Leyland has taken a lot of heat for the way he juggles his line up and over uses his bench since becoming the manager in Detroit, mostly because we have been in close pennant races till the end of the season seemingly every year.  This year the team has taken care of business early and you don't seem to hear those criticisms anymore even though the line up is hardly the same one night to the next.  A lot has been made recently about third base coach Tom Brookens and his decisions to send runners home.  While Leyland has come out in support of his coach, which I applaud him for, it's one thing to send runners home and have them be thrown out in a close play, it's totally another to have the ball reach home when the runner is only half way down the line.  It's fine to be aggressive and the Tigers score a lot of runs so you are going to have more opportunities to be thrown out but common sense says there's been too much of this happening the last few weeks for it not to be a big deal.  Moving on, Dave Dombrowski deserves a ton of credit for going out and nabbing Iglesias knowing they were going to lose Peralta for 50 games, along with picking up Veras, who hasn't done a lot since coming to Detroit but will be mostly graded on how he performs in the post season, helping the bullpen protect leads or keeping the Tigers bats within striking distance.

So where do I see the Tigers finishing over the course of the last 22 games?  I say they finish 12-10 and end the season with a 93-69 record and will host the winner of the AL West, either Oakland or Texas in the Divisional Round.

Lions 2013-2014 Season Preview

The NFL kicks off Thursday night so it's time to preview what is sure to be a roller coaster season for the Lions.  Were going to break down each position group and the schedule before giving our season ending prediction.  Let's get it started!

Quarterbacks:
While Calvin Johnson is best and most irreplaceable player on the roster, Matthew Stafford is undoubtedly the most important player in terms of how the lions season is going to play out. The NFL is a quarterback driven league, and the Lions have pinned their hopes on Stafford's rocket arm.  Stafford's preseason results, or lack there of, have the lions fan base quite concerned headed into week 1.  Stafford's accuracy was a concern coming out of Georgia and he hasn't been consistently accurate so far this preseason.  During the Lions playoff season of 2011 Stafford had a career best completion percentage of 63.5%.  The main area where Stafford's accuracy has been an issue has been in the red zone.  In 2011 Stafford had 29 TD passes in the red zone.  in 2012, just 15.  Stafford needs to be accurate, and more important, accurate in the red zone, finishing drives off with TD's instead of FG's.  When you lose 8 games by 7 points or less, 5 of them by 4 points or less, scoring touchdowns instead of FG's makes a huge difference. Sean Hill had a great preseason and continues to be one of the best back up QB's in the NFL.  Kellen Moore will be inactive most weeks but had a nice camp as well and deserved to make the roster.

Running Backs:
While Reggie Bush hasn't made a big splash in the running game so far, it's clear he adds a dimension the lions have lacked since losing Javid Best to early retirement.  Bush may well end with 80+ catches this year and should find plenty of room to operate underneath Calvin Johnson.  Bush demonstrated an ability to run between the tackles in Miami, but we didn't see much of that this preseason, though there hasn't been many holes for bush to run through.  Joique Bell has been the stud of the offense this preseason and has outplayed Mikel Leshoure in every facet in earning the number two reps.  I actually think Joique Bell will lead the Lions in rushing yards this year, I think he tops 750.  As far as Leshoure is concerned, I think he may struggle to find a place on the active roster each week.  He doesn't play special teams like Riddick, he doesn't catch the ball or run routes out of the slot like Riddick can, and with Bush and Bell clearly ahead of him as runners, Leshoure may be the odd man out each Sunday.  Riddick showed his versatile skill set during the preseason and has earned the label of being "a good football player" and should find time on special teams.  Montell Owens will start the season on the short term IR and when he returns should be immediately inserted onto all the special teams.

Wide Receivers:
This group had a rough camp.  Johnson has been banged up and only played two series this preseason.  Without CJ in the lineup, the lions are not winning many games this year, the coaches know that so they kept him out.  He is a workout warrior so I wouldn't be too concerned with his conditioning going into week 1.  Behind Johnson the questions are many.  Burleson looked old this preseason returning from a broken leg that sidelined him for the second half of 2012.  Brolyes has been brought along slowly, recovering from an injury of his own, but if he is healthy I think he goes a long way to making this group much more consistent.  He has an uncanny knack for getting open and making tough catches in traffic.  Patrick Edwards could also be a guy who can help this group out if he can demonstrate more consistency in his route running and catching.  He should see more one on one coverage with CJ in the line up and he has speed to exploit those types of mismatches.  Kris Durham adds size and physicality to the group and Michael Spurlock will most likely handle the return duties to start the season.
 
Tight Ends:
Lets just be honest and understand how this is going to play out.  At some point this season, probably sooner then later, Pettigrew is going to drop a pass and the Lions fans are going to jump all over him.  With all the talk about how hard he has worked and how he owned up to the below average 2012 season, It still just never seems like he catches the ball cleanly.  It almost looks like his hands don't react quickly enough when the ball hits them, so it bounces around a little and sometimes he catches it and sometimes it hits the turf.  This is Pettigrew so as long as he is playing we might as well accept it.  Scheffler seems to have a nose for the end zone but he plays small for a tight end, he's not physical in the box or when the ball is in the air.  Joseph Fauria has been a nice find for the Lions and will serve as their third TE.  He is very similar to Scheffler in terms of his blocking ability at the moment but he has time to improve where as Scheffler kind of is what he is at this point in his career.  However, Fauria seems to know how to use his massive 6'7 frame to his advantage when the ball is in the air and with a little seasoning I think he can become a big time weapon for the lions down the road.  Michael Williams will spend the season on IR, but could be a replacement for Pettigrew down the road if he continues to struggle.

Offensive Line:
When we talk about Mathew Stafford being the turning point of the team, its only fair to point out that he shouldn't have to do it alone. The offensive line will be key in allowing Stafford the time he needs to make accurate throws.  The O-line has been in rebuilding mode this off season but it seems that after all the battles played out through the preseason, the two names most people had pegged for starting positions came out on top.  Larry Warford, the lions 3rd round pick this past April and Jason Fox appear to have wrapped up the starting spots on the right side.  Riley Reiff will begin what Lions fans hope will be a long and prosperous tenure over at LT.  The biggest challenge facing this line is continuity.  The Lions had started the same offensive line for nearly 3 years and now are replacing 3 guys in one off season, with two of the spots interchanging until the final days of camp.  There's no doubt Jason Fox, Larry Warford and Riley Reiff have the talent and potential to actually be upgrades at each of their respective positions, but only time will tell.  Raiola added some weight and has been better in pass protection up the middle, and Sims has been solid as usual at LG.  The Lions have good depth with Corey Hillard at tackle but are not as deep up the middle.  Undrafted rookie tackle Ladrian Waddle was a major surprise during the preseason, earning first string reps at times by the end of camp.

Defensive Line:
Again, while Stafford is the key, having a Defense that doesn't allow teams to run and throw all over it, and maybe generates some turnovers once in a while would go a long way towards taking pressure off the QB.  It all starts up front as the Lions have counted on the defensive line to be their strongest position group for the past 3 years.  In 2011, it was as good as advertised.  In 2012, however, they were just average.  The lions made a philosophical change when adding talent to their D-line this off season, looking to add players who were taller and had longer arms in order to minimize the passing windows and so far the results have been impressive.  Ndamukong Suh has been an absolute force and should continue that trend in the regular season.  Nick Fairey has been equally as impressive as the two of them have clogged up the middle, stopping the run, collapsing the pocket and not allowing the edge rushers to be double teamed so they can get to the QB.  Ziggy Ansah looks to have a very bright future and the "project" label has all been wiped away.  He should pay immediate dividends and will only continue to get better as a complete DE, not just a pass rush specialist.  This undisclosed injury does have me a bit concerned heading into week 1 however.  The other rotational ends have been solid, Willie young and Jason Jones could have monster years playing next to Suh, Fairley and Ansah.  The veteran depth of Idonije, Mosely, and Bannon should help this group be a dominating force all year.  Rookie Devin Taylor had a nice preseason, but needs to get stronger to make the kind of impact the Lions are hoping for from him down the road.

Line Backers:
Outside of the wide reievers, the line backers are probably the thinnest group talent wise.  Tulloch is a tackling machine and Levy is solid on the outside.  Ashlee Palmer won the starting job over Tahir Whitehead and Travis Lewis but he is probably best suited as a reserve and special teams ace.  I think he will be fine against the run but I don't like his instincts to cover and make tackles in the open field.  Whitehead and Lewis are young and inexperienced, again both are probably best suited for special teams roles.  I thought Rocky McIntosh was a nice training camp addition and I think cutting him is putting a lot of potentially disastrous faith in Palmer, Lewis and Whitehead.

Update:  The Lions re-signed McIntosh, filling the roster spot vacated by placing Montell Owens on the short term IR.
 
Defensive Backs:
If there is one group that has taken a considerable step forward from August first to September first its the corners.  The tandem of Chris Houston and Darius Slay has a chance to be the best set of corners the lions have had in a long time.  Slay has size, ball skills, and confidence to spare.  As he grows into his role he has a chance to supplant Houston as the Lions #1 corner.  The addition of Mathis and a healthy Bill Bentley make a solid set of 4 cover guys.  Jonte Green had a decent rookie campaign but seemed to be MIA during the preseason.  He adds quality, developing depth if he's actually around.  The safety position has also been upgraded with the addition of Glover Quinn.  He should be a steadying force on the back end.  Don Carey showed he can be a solid back up and the late addition of Dejuan Gomes adds depth if Delmas cant stay on the field.  If Delmas can stay healthy and contribute consistently, with the pressure the front 4 should be producing, the secondary has the chance to be the best its been in my lifetime.  That's not saying much, but for once I don't think its our weakest level of our defense.

Specialists:
Oh special teams how I loathe thee.  It's impossible to know just how different things would have been had the Lions special teams not imploded in weeks 3 and 4 against the Titans and Vikings last year but the Lions would have been 3-1 instead of 1-3 headed into their bye week, feeling much better about themselves and their standings.  For as long as I can remember, the lions kick coverage units have been atrocious.  It finally seems to have been a point of emphasis this off season and if the preseason is any indication, those units look much improved.  David Akers takes over the kicking duty for the legendary Jason Hanson and has looked much healthier then he was in San Fran last year.  Fifth round pick Sam Martin has been an instant upgrade in both punting and kickoffs and looks to have justified his selection.

Season Prediction:
I think this years Lions will be much closer to the 2011 version than the 2012 version.  Looking at the schedule, it looks tough.  Nine games against playoff teams from a year ago and that doesn't include talented teams like the Cowboys, Giants, Steelers and improved teams like the Eagles and Buccaneers. 

vsMinnesota - W
@Arizona - W
@Washington - L
vsChicago - W
@Green Bay - L
@Cleveland - W
vsCincinnati - L
vsDallas - W
@Chicago - L
@Pittsburgh - W
vsTampa Bay - W
vsGreen Bay - L
@Philadelphia - W
vsBaltimore - W
vsNew York - L
@Minnesota - W

Still, I'm optimistic and my gut tells me 10-6, just making it into the playoffs by winning in Minnesota on the last day of the season.  Come back tomorrow as I recap the Tigers second half following the conclusion of the Boston series.