Lions Week 1 Prediction Vs. the Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings and superstar running back Adrian Peterson are coming to Detroit to kick off the regular season in a game which highlights two of the best pure football players in the world.  In a recent poll by ESPN analysts, Peterson was voted the third best offensive player in the NFL, one of the two people ahead of him was Detroit Lions Wide receiver Calvin Johnson.  While every single game matters in the NFL, the matchup with the Vikings in week one is pivotal for the Lions for a number of reasons.  First, the Vikings are a divisional opponent, a win Sunday gives the Lions the early division lead.  Second, the Viking were a playoff team a year ago, though a surprising result to be sure, but if the Lions have any hope of making the playoffs this year they need to be better then the Vikings.  I personally feel the Lions have more overall talent on both sides of the football, and are playing at home, so this constitutes a must win.  That doesn't mean it will be easy.  If the Lions offense struggles early and allows the Vikings to ride Peterson into the 4th quarter, expect this game to be in jeopardy.  The Lions run defense in the preseason was outstanding and if they can make the Vikings one dimensional, either by playing with the lead or by bottling up Peterson, they should come away with the victory.  Here are my five keys to watch throughout the game:

Staffords accuracy:
I talked about Stafford accuracy in my season preview as the piece that will make or break the season so we might as well lead with that.  If Stafford can be accurate on third down, keep drives alive and then be accurate in the red zone, finishing off with touchdowns instead of feild goals, the Lions should win this game.
 
Contain Peterson, limit big plays:
It seems easy to say if you stop Adrian Peterson you stop the Vikings but they have added some nice pieces on the outside and this will be the first time we get to see how Ponder will work with former packer Greg Jennings and newly drafted Cordarrelle Patterson, along with Kyle Rudolph who is one of the best young pass catching tight ends in the league.  If you are able to contain Peterson, which of course is job number one, you must still finish the series by putting pressure on Ponder and covering well down the field.

Special teams coverage:
Last year the Vikings came into Detroit and stole a game thanks in part to both a kickoff and punt return for a touchdown.  The Lions have focused on special teams coverage units heavily this off season, time to put them to the test. 

Detroit's O-line vs. Minnesota's D-line:
Detroit will be starting three new pieces on their offensive line.  Both tackles, Riley Reiff and presumably Jason Fox, will have their hands full as the Vikings have one of the best sets of 4-3 defensive ends in the game with Jarred Allen and Brian Robison.  Rookie Larry Warford seems to have won the starting right guard spot and will be key in preventing push up the middle into Stafford's face.  Keeping Stafford upright and giving him enough time to go through his reads will be paramount if the Lions are to be victorious. 

Tackle, tackle, tackle:
Peterson is one of the toughest backs in the league, known for breaking tackles at will so making sound, form tackles on him and not letting him pinball off and run through arm tackles is a must.  From there the Lions must do a better job of open field tackling then they did the first few weeks of the preseason.  Their defense at home can be a force with the crowd noise behind them, but if Minnesota gets big plays it will be mostly because of missed tackles.

Other miscellaneous notes:

• It looks as though Ziggy Ansah will be playing after being cleared to return from the concussion he suffered nearly two weeks ago.  I know this is a must win but I might sit him for fear of another concussion knocking him out for 6 weeks or worse.  Javid Best anyone?
• Let the Peterson vs. Johnson yardage watch officially begin.  Each week we will keep track of where these two are compared to one another and compared to their pace from last year.

Prediction:
Lions take this one 27-20, starting the season off 1-0.