Of course my first post on the Tigers comes a day after one of the most epic beat downs I've watched unfold. For a city that is as emotionally unstable as Detroit, when it comes to over reacting to every win and every loss, the sheer number of games in the baseball season can be quite draining. But for some reason, last nights loss, while embarrassing, almost feels like the outlier that you can just laugh off as something that could not possibly happen again. Baseball is a weird sport as far as wins and losses are concerned. If you win 55% of your games, you're a 90 win team and a world series contender. In basketball or hockey if you win 55% of your games, you probably make the playoffs but are not an elite team. Football is the same way, 55% is 9 wins, maybe sneaking you into the playoffs but in many cases your on the outside looking in. The tigers are 29-17 since the all star break, but have only won 7 out of 13 series. They had a stretch where they won 16 of 17 including 12 straight but are just 13-14 since, winning just 3 of 8 series. They have had some lows, Wednesday night in Boston, being swept in a double header at home by the Royals, and being dominated by the A's for 35 out of 36 innings, again at home. However none of those losses have lingered because every time they lose a couple games in a row, they come back with a big walk off win, or a shut-out or a series sweep that re-affirms their dominance. Magical moments like Avila's home run in the 9th in Cleveland, Cabrera taking Rivera deep twice in New York, and Torii Hunter's comeback walk off vs. the A's come to mind. I say the word consistent a lot, because I think in sports consistency plays a major role in success. The one thing the Tigers have done well all season is beat the Indians. If they weren't 7-0 vs. the Indians since the break the race for the AL Central is much closer and everyone would be concerned about us slipping out of the playoffs. As it now stands, the Tigers are 6.5 games up on Cleveland with only 22 games left, so it would take Berlin Wall type collapse for the Tigers to not win the central. Tigers fans would feel better about our playoff hopes if we were winning more consistently as we head in October. Let's now take a look at how the position groups have fared since the break:
Starting pitchers:
Before last nights circus, Porcello had been 4-1 since the break, Sanchez is 5-1, Scherzer 6-1, Fister 5-2, and then there's our ace, Justin Verlander at 2-4. Verlander is officially a question mark, where would you start him in a playoff series if you're Jim Leyland? Is it his velocity, location, release point, confidence? Is he washed up? Fortunately the Tigers have the deepest and best starting staff in all of baseball. The "other 4" have consistently given the tigers offense a chance to win games. Scherzer has received a lot of the headlines with that sparkling win percentage, and rightfully so, but they collectively have been great, 28 of their combined 36 starts in the second half have been quality starts.
Bullpen:
I was actually going to write some nice things about our bullpen and talk about how they have improved with the additions of Bonderman and Veras and then the Boston massacre happened. In all seriousness, with the consistency of Smyly, the addition of Jose Veras, the emergence of Bruce Rondon and Benoit settling into the closers role, the once suspect bullpen has been much better during the second half. There are still some pieces that need to be ironed out if they are going to help this team come playoff time. Alburquerque has a plus fastball and slider but his control is almost non-existent. Coke hasn't been great, okay he's been bad, but he has the stuff and experience to turn it around, and we will need a second left hander out of the bullpen come playoff time. Bonderman seems to be an innings eater guy when were either losing or way ahead. Still, if you have Smyly, Rondon, and Veras for the 7th and 8th innings and Benoit for the 9th, the Tigers should be in good shape come October.
Catchers:
This is a position that has seen a lot of moving parts in the second half. After a below average first half, Alex Avila was starting to turn things around at the plate before suffering a bevy of injuries, most notably a concussion that landed him on the 7 day DL and into a rehab stint in Toledo. Brayan Pena has been a nice surprise in his stead, batting over .300 this year while allowing Victor Martinez to remain the DH and not take the wear and tear put on the back up catcher. It was interesting to see Martinez catch a few games as the Tigers took to inter league play against the Mets. I wouldn't be surprised, if the Tigers make it to the world series, to see Martinez catching in the National League ball parks in order to keep his red hot bat, which has led the AL in hits and average since the all star break, in the line up.
Corner Infielders:
What's left to say about the season that Miguel Cabrera is putting together. People are saying he might be the greatest right handed batter of all time, I'd say slow down. Miggy has been great this year, last year, every year and I think people will remember him as one of the best right handed hitters of all time but lets let him finish his career before we start trying to slot him in terms of historical context and just enjoy the ride he's on right now. However, Cabrera's health should be the Tigers number one priority for the remainder of the season. Fielder's mid season struggle was well documented in the media, along with his personal life, but he has rebounded nicely since august where hit .289 with a .813 slugging percentage for the month, both are his best since his torrid April start.
Middle Infielders:
The biggest question of the year for the Tigers will be raised at the very end of September when Jhonny Peralta is eligible to return from his 50 game suspension. We're going to cross that bridge when it gets closer but for now we get to enjoy the silky smooth play of Jose Iglesias. This kid is unreal defensively, and I like his swing, he has the potential to be an offensive contributor but really he could get away hitting .250 with the glove he brings to the park everyday. Omar Infante spent some time on the DL but I really think he is one of the under-rated, overlooked contributors. He's hitting .353 since the break. When guys like Infante and Iglesias are getting on base, this team is really tough to beat. Infante will also be a great mentor for a guy like Iglesias to learn from as they have become one of the best double play combinations in all of baseball.
Outfield:
You haven't seen as many spectacular plays from Austin Jackson this year but that's because he makes a lot of things look easy, he covers ground about as well as any center fielder in the game today and he's only 26, in his 4th year in the big leagues. Torii hunter has been a big time acquisition, not only from his production on the field but for the leadership and enthusiasm he brings to the clubhouse every day. You couldn't ask for a better mentor for a guy like Austin Jackson then a 9 time Gold Glove winner. Compare Torii's first three full seasons in the big leagues to Austin Jackson's first three full seasons and you'll see Torii had an average of .264 and a slugging percentage of .431, where as Austin has .280 average and a slugging percentage of .416. I'm not going to go as far as to say Austin Jackson will develop the kind of power Torii Hunter has shown or that he will win 9 gold gloves but he has the talent to be a very good center fielder for years to come. The left field spot was essentially given to Andy Dirks this year after a stellar 2012 campaign but he has really regressed this season, opening the door for the likes of a Tuiasosopo or potentially Nick Castellanos to come in and take the job from him. Dirks is solid defensively though, which is really the only reason he hasn't been completely removed from the line up.
Manager/Coaches/Front Office:
Jim Leyland has taken a lot of heat for the way he juggles his line up and over uses his bench since becoming the manager in Detroit, mostly because we have been in close pennant races till the end of the season seemingly every year. This year the team has taken care of business early and you don't seem to hear those criticisms anymore even though the line up is hardly the same one night to the next. A lot has been made recently about third base coach Tom Brookens and his decisions to send runners home. While Leyland has come out in support of his coach, which I applaud him for, it's one thing to send runners home and have them be thrown out in a close play, it's totally another to have the ball reach home when the runner is only half way down the line. It's fine to be aggressive and the Tigers score a lot of runs so you are going to have more opportunities to be thrown out but common sense says there's been too much of this happening the last few weeks for it not to be a big deal. Moving on, Dave Dombrowski deserves a ton of credit for going out and nabbing Iglesias knowing they were going to lose Peralta for 50 games, along with picking up Veras, who hasn't done a lot since coming to Detroit but will be mostly graded on how he performs in the post season, helping the bullpen protect leads or keeping the Tigers bats within striking distance.
So where do I see the Tigers finishing over the course of the last 22 games? I say they finish 12-10 and end the season with a 93-69 record and will host the winner of the AL West, either Oakland or Texas in the Divisional Round.
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