Week 6 preview and prediction: Lions vs Browns

The outcome of this game isn't as simple as figuring out if one person is playing or not, but it could be.  If Calvin Johnson does not suit up again this week as the Lions travel to Cleveland to face the surging Browns, Detroit will be hard pressed to score enough points against a stingy Browns defense to win the game.  If Calvin is in the line up, that doesn't make playing the Browns easier, but it makes winning the game a possibility.  Cleveland's offense had been improved with Brian Hoyer taking over at quarterback and Willis Mcgahee taking over in the backfield after the Browns traded away Trent Richardson.  However, Hoyer suffered a knee injury that ended his season on Thursday night in week 5, so the Browns once again hand the ball the Brandon Weeden, and there lies the Lions path to victory.  The Lions faced the Browns in a preseason game and were thrashed by the Browns offense and Weeden, but the Lions seemed to be holding something back, knowing these teams would meet in the regular season.  Weeden has been sacked 16 times in the three games he's played, has thrown three picks and fumbled twice.  If the Lions pressure Weeden with their front four, the defense might score enough points to win this game for Detroit.  In the preseason meeting, and thus far early in the regular season, Browns tight end Jordan Cameron has played about as well as any tight end not named Jimmy Graham, or not playing in Denver.  Cameron has more catches and touchdowns then Calvin Johnson, and is averaging more yards per game, that's pretty impressive.  With Weeden and Johnson both in the line up for their respective teams, Detroit has the clear advantage, but if CJ cant go, this game will be close.  Here are 5 keys to watch:

Pressure Weeden: 
We mentioned Weeden's propensity for being sacked and that will have to be the game plan for Detroit defense.  The Detroit defensive front is one of the most terrorizing in the NFL without question but last week they were burned with draw plays and a scrambling quarterback.  Weeden is not nearly as mobile as Aaron Rodgers in escaping the pocket so Detroit should get home more often this week.  Weeden only completes about 54% of his passes and the Lions have had success making big plays on defense this year against inaccurate or pressured quarterbacks. 

Consistency from secondary play makers: 
Regardless if Calvin is playing or not, Detroit's backs, receivers, and tight ends need to catch the balls that hit them in the hands in order to sustain drives to score points, something they did not do last week in Green bay, recording five dropped passes.  With Tony Scheffler missing the game with concussion issues, Joseph Fauria and Ryan Broyles should see increased roles and they are two of the Lions most sure handed players.  Reggie Bush and Joique Bell need to grind out yards on the ground, avoiding negative plays, and Scott Linehan needs to create miss matches in the passing game to exploit Bush more.   

Win first and second down:  The Lions 3rd down defense was not as strong as it had been all year against the Packers last week because the Packers ran the ball effectively on 1st and 2nd down to set up manageable 3rd down opportunities. Willis Mcgahee has been the primary ball the past two weeks for the Browns but has not been very successful running the ball, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry.  If the Lions can create third and long situations, the Browns only convert 34% on third down as it is, and the browns don't have a lot of playmakers that will consistently sustain drives, much like the Lions without CJ and Burleson.     

Detroits Offensive line:  This seems to be a broken record, but Detroit's offensive line did not play as well as they had all year last week against the Packers and will need to be better if the lions hope to win in Cleveland.  The Browns defense is strong across the board ranking 4th in the NFL having given up just over 300 yards of offense and just 18.8 points per game.  However, Cleveland has faced only one top 10 offense all year, Minnesota in week 3, and gave up 27 points.  Cleveland has 18 sacks this season, tying them for third in the NFL and that's been a big reason they have only allowed 206 passing yards against per game.  Detroit's offensive line is going to have to be better opening holes in the running game to take the pressure off Stafford, as well as giving him the protection and time he needs to throw the ball.  I think the rushing total will again be indicative of how the Lions offense, and line, is playing.  If the Lions can run for 100 yards, they will have a good shot to score enough points to win, if they are in the 70 yard range, this game will look just like last week.  

Punting and field position:  This could be an ugly offensive game, especially if CJ is out.  The Lions special teams has been much better the last three games and Sam Martin has emerged as one of the best punters in the league just five games into his career.  Martin is averaging 49.5 yards per kick, 2nd best in the NFL and the coverage units have a done a great job as the Lions lead the NFL with a punting net gain of 47.1 yards.  The Browns are second in the NFL with a 15.1 yard punt return average, so which ever team can control the field position while Detroit is punting could play a huge role in determining the outcome as in a low scoring game, field position can make all the difference.  The browns are averaging just 40.8 yards net gain per punt while Detroit has averaged 9.5 yards per punt return.

Game Notes:

• Speaking of Jimmy Graham, he is leading the NFL in receiving yards with through 5 weeks with 593 yards, which puts him on pace for a 1897 yard season.  We will keep an eye on Calvin's record if Graham keeps having big weeks.
• Injury news for Detroit, Scheffler is out, Jason Fox is doubtful, and Riddick is out.  Cory Hilliard would get the start for Fox at right tackle.
• The browns Jabaal Sheard is questionable, if the Browns were to lose him up front that would be a huge blow to their defensive front 7.
• The winner of this game moves to 4-2 and would be in good shape to play meaningful games in December.
• This is the first of back to back games vs the AFC North for Detroit as they host Cincinnati next week.
• This will be the Lions 4th road game of the season, against only 2 home games thus far.  If the Lions come out of that stretch 4-2, they will like their chances the rest of the way with 6 games still to be played at Ford Field.    

Prediction:  Assuming CJ plays, the Lions win ugly, 20-13.