The Tigers are headed to their 3rd straight ALCS against their third different opponent, Texas, New York and now Boston. While the Tigers were the preseason favorites by many to win the World Series, Boston was the odds on favorite as the postseason started. The Red Sox are the most complete team in baseball, they can beat you on offense with power or speed, their starting pitching is strong when healthy and their bullpen has grown over the year and Uehara has been terrific. The Tigers will be the underdog
Starting pitching: The Red Sox have good starting pitching, the Tigers have great starting pitching. With Justin Verlander looking like his old self and Max Scherzer pitching like the AL Cy Young winner, the Tigers have two guys who can shut down an offense every time out. Anibal Sanchez becomes the key to this series for the Tigers. If he can return to his regular season form and find his command, the Tigers will be tough to beat 4 times in 7 games. If he gets beat up like he did against Oakland, the Tigers might not make it past 5 games. The Tigers have struggled against left handed pitching this year and Lester pitched well against the Tigers in early September in Fenway Park. The Tigers would have Scherzer and Verlander lined up for games 6 and 7 respectively, if they can get that far, they would have the clear advantage. Boston hitters struck out every 4.34 at-bats throughout the course of the regular season, The Tigers pitching staff struck out the most batters in the history of baseball.
Advantage: Detroit
Bullpen: The Red Sox bullpen has been mostly Breslow against lefties, Kazawa vs righties and Uehara to close it out. Uehara was nearly unhittable in the regular season but did take a loss in the ALDS giving up a home run to Jose Lobaton in the 9th inning of game 3 in the ALDS. The Tigers bullpen has mostly consisted of Drew Smyly against lefties, Al Alburquerque and Jose Veras agasint righties and Benoit as the closer. Benoit, like Uehara, was promoted to the closers role midway through the season and has done a nice job, but they both will be tested in pressure packed moments in this ALCS unlike anything either has seen. The Tigers trust Smyly but the rest of the middle relief has been shaky. The best bet for the Tigers is to have their starters go 7 innings, Smyly in the 8th, and Benoit in the 9th. Breslow and Tazawa were very strong out of the bullpen for the Red Sox in the ALDS, pitching 6 total innings, allowing just 3 hits and striking out 6.
Advantage: Boston
Offense: The Tigers had the higher team batting average throughout the season but the Red Sox scored the most runs in MLB. The Red Sox score more runs then Detroit because they run the bases much better then do the Tigers. The Tigers offense showed a few signs of life towards the end of the ALDS but they will need to get more production from the top of the order if they want to keep pace with the Red Sox. Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Victorino are a terror on the base paths and while the middle of the order is deeper for Detroit, Boston has the clear edge when it comes to table setters. Boston scored 26 runs in 4 games against the Rays while the Tigers scored only 17 runs in 5 games against Oakland. If Miguel Cabrera was 100% healthy, this is nearly a pick em, but he's not and while he hit a huge home run in game 5, the Tigers are going to need extra base production from the middle of the line up consistently if they want to find themselves back in the world series.
Advantage: Boston
Defense: The Tigers are a better defensive club then they are given credit for. Boston and Detroit had identical fielding percentages of .987, tied for 7th best in the Majors. Boston has a slight advantage because they play the ball off the monster 81 times a year. Perlata will almost assuredly not be in left field with the green monster behind him in Boston, but it will be interesting to see how Jim Leyland plans to use Iglesias and Peralta as well as Kelly and Dirks between the short stop and left field positions.
Advantage: Push
Intangibles: The Red Sox won 53 games at home this season, most in the AL. The Red Sox clinched early and are rested while the Tigers are flying across the country after game 5 in Oakland. The Red Sox pitching got healthy late in the season, and their bats have been red hot the last two months. The Tigers have struggled at the plate as of late, Sanchez struggled in his only start in the ALDS, Cabrera is still hurting, Austin Jackson stuck out 4353257645 times in the ALDS and the bullpen is still a question mark as Rondon is still unavailable.
Advantage: Boston
Prediction: The Tigers are the underdog's and will have to be at their best to beat Boston but starting pitching is the great equalizer in the postseason. Lester vs Sanchez will split 1-1. Scherzer vs Bucholtz will split 1-1. Verlander vs Lackey will go 2-0 Verlander. Tigers win game 7 in Boston.
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