Lions vs. Redskins week 3 preview and prediction

Same Old Lions. That's been the headline of the week in Detroit as the Lions did their best to lose the game last week in Arizona, a place they have struggled to win in my lifetime, and this week they go into Washington, a place they've never won in anyone's lifetime. While its hard to put your money on a team that is so self destructive, a win in Washington would have the Lions back on track with a home divisional game against the Bears on the horizon. If the Lions are going to pull off the upset over history, they are going to need more help from the offensive supporting cast.  Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson cant do it by themselves.  Washington has struggled its first two weeks in giving up over 1000 yards of offense and trailing by a combined score of 50-7 at halftime.  The Redskins then have to try and claw their way back into the game through the air, and they are not set up to win that way.  Despite their records last year I think Detroit is better on both sides of the ball again, and should win this game if talent was all that mattered.  However, Washington is desperate for a win to avoid a disastrous 0-3 start and they probably view the Lions as a team they can beat if they can hang around long enough for the Lions to make the mistake that will cost them the game.   Here are five keys to this weeks game.
 

Limit the redskins running game.
RG3 is one of the most explosive athletes in football when he's healthy.  Right now, either he is not as healthy as they claim or they just are being ultra cautious, but RG3 is not using his most effective weapon, his speed.   The lions cant let him have a break out performance if they want to win the game.  Alfred Morris is a load and the redskins use the zone blocking scheme Mike Shanahan has been using forever effectively, along with the read option with their dangerous quarterback.  If the redskins can pick up chunks of yardage on the ground and then move to play action, they become a dangerous offense.  If you force them into obvious passing situations, 3rd and long, playing from behind, etc. Griffin is not really equipped to beat you.  Nick Fairley's presence or lack there of could be a major determining factor as to which of these units is successful.  The Lions will have to be smart when applying pressure to RG3 and keep contain from the edge rushers because if the pocket collapses up the middle and he gets outside it could be six points.  The Lions are allowing just 2.48 yards per carry outside of Peterson's 78 yard score on the first play of the season.  If they keep the Redskins under four yards per carry they will be in great position to win. 

 

Detroit's offensive line vs. Washington's defensive front. 
The Redskins defense has been torched this year in its first two games, facing offense oriented teams in Philadelphia and Green Bay, and now the Lions.  If the Lions offensive line can continue to protect Stafford the way they have thus far and get back to opening up holes the way they did against Minnesota instead of the lack of running room in Arizona, the Lions offense will march up and down the field Sunday.  The Redskins have given up over 200 yards per game on the ground so far, so it will be important to stick with running the football the way the Lions did in their opening win.  The best part of the Redskins defense is their outside pass rush, they are top ten in the league right now with seven sacks with guys like Kerrigan and Orakpo leading the way but if you contain the rush the rest of the unit is below average as they are one of five teams in the league right now without an interception.

Catch the ball.
We are now going to transition into the "do everything better then you did last week" section of the program.  The Lions are dropping over 10 percent of their passes.  The Lions secondary pass catchers and play makers need to step up to take the pressure off of Calvin Johnson especially if Reggie Bush is unable to play with his injured knee.  Matthew Stafford has been terrific early this season but he needs help, and by help I mean just catch the balls that hit you in the hands.  If Bush, Edwards and Broyles are all potentially out this Sunday the Lions will have to get more creative with their formations and use Pettigrew, Scheffler and Fauria as well as Theo Riddick in the slot to create mismatches.  Riddick is an under rated asset in the route running and pass catching department and the Lions should find ways to utilize him if depth comes into play.  Bush says he wants to play but its becoming a question of even if he does play, will he last the whole game?  Washington's secondary is allowing teams to complete nearly 75 percent of their passes so it will be on the Lions to haul those balls in. 

Make your field goals.
It seems like a simple concept yet in the first two weeks of the season the Lions have a dropped hold, a missed attempt (unofficially 2), and a blocked attempt.  Not only does that hurt you on the scoreboard but it becomes a mental issue.  It's frustrating for the team to put the kicking unit in position to score points and then to come away with nothing time and again, momentum is everything.  I think I jinxed Akers last week as I said he would win the game with a late field goal and instead our kicking game was horrendous.  This has to be fixed, 11 of the first 33 games this season have been decided by 3 points or less. 

Penalties and third down conversions.
Detroit has forfeited a couple big plays, a ton of yardage, and field position due to stupid penalties mostly on special teams and defense.  The return game needs to be clean this week and the secondary needs to limit the big plays, including big plays given up through penalties.  Darius Slay has had a couple of "this isn't the preseason anymore" moments the last couple of weeks and is on the verge of losing his starting position to Rashean Mathis, though I would rather have Slay on the outside and Mathis replace Bentley as the nickel back, Bentley gambles too much and its embarrassing when teams target you not because they think they can beat you, but because they think you will beat yourself.  The Redskins have not been much better, being flagged for a combined 15 penalties for 140 yards in their opening two games.  Both the Lions and the Redskins have been terrible on third down, the Lions 8 of 24, the Redskins 5 of 21.  Which ever team best reverses these trends should come away with the victory.

Game notes:

• Calvin Johnson has 153 yards, 10 catches and 2 touchdowns this season so far while Adrian Peterson has 193 yards on 44 carries with 2 touchdowns.
• Reggie bush is questionable and will be a game time decision.  Nick Fairley is questionable but should be back and Jason Fox seems to still be out as is Patrick Edwards.  
• Lions are 0-21 in Washington.
• Only five teams have ever made the playoffs after starting 0-3.
• Detroit is one of five teams to have allowed one or fewer sacks thus far.
• Matthew Stafford is 5th in the NFL right now with a passer rating of 102.0.  He trails Manning, Rodgers, Rivers and Ryan.   

Prediction: 
I think the Lions are the more talented team but can they avoid the big mistake?  All the intangibles, however, point to the Redskins avoiding the 0-3 start at home against a team that doesn't overcome history often.  I obviously hope I'm wrong but Redskins 31, Lions 27.