Thursday, October 3, 2013

Tiger's vs. A's: ALDS preview and prediction

The Tigers and A's will hook up in the ALDS for the second consecutive season.  Last year the inexperienced A's pushed the Tigers to 5 games and Oakland won the season series this year from Detroit 4-3.  The Tigers enter the postseason with offensive question marks after a rough September which concluded with them being no hit in the final game of the season.  The A's were one of baseballs hottest teams the last two months of the season but are still a sleeper world series pick because of the lack of star power on their roster.  Lets see how the teams match up:

Starting pitching:  There are two teams, the Tigers and the Dodgers, as we enter the postseason that you look at their starting pitching and think how are you going to beat those guys 3 or 4 times in a series?  This is the biggest reason why the Tigers are legitimate contenders to win the World Series.  Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander would start game one for about 20 teams but for Detroit, it will be 21 game winner and Cy Young front runner Max Scherzer.  Verlander will start game two in Oakland, followed by Sanchez and Fister in games 3 and 4 in Detroit.  The starting rotation for the Tigers led the American League in wins, ERA, strikeouts, quality starts and innings pitched.  If Detroit plans to stick around, this group has to be as dominant in the postseason as they were all year long.  The A's starting staff is solid, you don't get to the postseason without good pitching, and they have a Cy Young candidate of their own in the ageless Bartolo Colon.  The A's will go with Sonny Gray in game 2, who has just 10 career starts.  Starter AJ Griffin has been left off the ALDS roster with elbow concerns after pitching 200 innings for Oakland this season.  Games 3 and 4 starters are scheduled to be Jarred Parker and Dan Straily.
Advantage: Detroit


Bullpen:  The bullpen was the biggest question mark heading into the season for the Tigers and that is still the case heading into postseason play.  Joaquin Benoit performed admirably in the closers role, until the last week of the season where he blew his first two saves of the year.  Jose Veras started strong with his new club but struggled in September, as has lefty Drew Smyly.  Al Alburquerque has been the Tigers best option the last month but has failed to show that consistent level of quality over long stretches.  Bruce Rondon will not pitch in the ALDS and will be sorely missed.  Rick Porcello should take some pressure off and could be a great 7th inning guy.  The Oakland bullpen actually has an identity and have been very strong with Doolittle, Cook and Balfour holding down the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings throughout the season. 
Advantage: Oakland


Offense:  The Tigers scored the second most runs and had the highest batting average in the league this season, and while they continued to hit the ball in September, they were tied for 22nd in runs scored the last month of the season, with just 97 runs in 26 games.  The problem with the Tigers offense of late has been the lack of timely hitting and the reduction of power numbers in September.  The later is mostly due to the injuries suffered by Miguel Cabrera and his health will be a major factor for the Tigers this post season.  He can carry the club alone at times but other Tigers hitters will have to step up and drive in runs when the opportunities are there because Miggy still isn't 100%.  The Oakland offense was in full swing in September, leading the majors in runs scored with 162.  They finished the season 4th in the majors in runs scored, but just 14th in batting average.  They hit the 3rd most home runs in the league and they hit the most fly balls in the majors and they do a good job of staying out of double plays.  Tiger's pitching has been by far the best in the AL at keeping the ball in the ball park, so who ever wins that battle of strengths will go a long way to determining the series.  Oakland isn't a high strikeout team like the Red Sox, so it will be interesting to see if the Tigers starters can continue their torrid strike out pace against the A's offense.  The Tigers were the better offense most of the season, but the A's were better the last 6 weeks.  Momentum might not mean much after a week off.  
Advantage: Detroit


Defense:  The addition of Jose Iglesias has made Detroit a much stronger defensive team, they finished 7th in fielding percentage in the majors while Oakland was 22nd.  The Tigers allowed the 3rd most stolen bases against and threw out the 2nd lowest percentage of attempts.  Detroit doesn't really steal bases so Oakland's catcher wont be tested much. 
Advantage: Detroit


Intangibles: The pressure is on the home team to take the first two games, but it will be hard for Oakland to beat both Scherzer and Verlander consecutively.  The pressure on the Tigers is more big picture as they were picked as one of the favorites to win the World Series this year, so anything short of winning their final game of the year at this point will be considered a let down.  Oakland has home field and was better in one run and extra inning games this season.
Advantage: Oakland


Prediction:  Oakland will test the Tigers, but history will repeat itself.  Tigers in 5.

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