Lions at Packers: Week 5 preview and prediction

The Lions have a chance to legitimize themselves as contenders in the NFC with a win in Green Bay.  A win would snap a much publicized 22 game losing streak at Lambeau Field.  A win would also make the Lions 4-1, with victories over all three division rivals.  That's a lot on the line this week for a franchise that only has one playoff appearance in the last 14 years.  Despite being just 1-2, with history on their side and one of the best QB's in all of football, the Packers are about a 7 point favorite at home.  The Packers are coming off their bye week, but their offense has been running like a well oiled machine in early part of the season, with a balance in the running game the Packers have missed since their Super Bowl run.  The Packers are 2nd in points per game, 3rd in total offense, 3rd in passing and 9th in rushing averaging 128 yards per game.  The defense however has been gashed, allowing over 400 yards and nearly 30 points a game.  The run defense has been better this year as most of the damage has been done through the air, as teams try and keep up with the Green Bay offense.  The Packers have had consecutive 100 yards rushing games from James Starks and Jonathan Franklin.  Meanwhile, the Lions are actually running for a less yards per game this year compared to last year, 95.5 to 100.8, but the explosive splash plays make the running game feel like much more of a threat this season with Reggie Bush and Joique Bell carrying the load.  The Lions had only four runs of 20+ yards last season, they have two such runs already this year and are averaging 7 first downs on the ground this year compared to just 5.25 per game last year.  Here are the 5 keys to watch on Sunday:

Detroit's secondary vs. Green Bay's passing attack: 
The Packers are, and have been for several years now, one of the premiere passing attacks in the NFL.  Aaron Rodgers spreads the ball around to Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley and they pose huge matchup problems trying to cover all four guys when they are all on the field together.  The Detroit secondary is improved on the back end, with a healthy Louis Delmas and the addition of Glover Quin, the safeties have made big plays so far this season.  The corners are still a work in progress, and Detroit's top cover man, Chris Houston is very questionable, nursing a hamstring injury he suffered in the 4th quarter of the game last week against Chicago.  If Houston is unable to go, the Lions will have to rely on Darius Slay and Jonte Green to step in and fill his shoes.  Rashean Mathis should be back this week after being held out of the remainder of the game last week with an apparent head injury.  If Rodgers has time in the pocket to deliver to his talented receiving corps, that's a big advantage to the Packers.

Turnovers: 
The Packers are in the bottom ten in the NFL with a -2 turnover margin this season, while the Lions are in the top 10 at +4.  Rodgers has thrown all three of his picks in Green Bay's two losses this season and the Packers have given away 4 fumbles this year, including one that cost them their last game against the Bengals.  Stafford has also thrown 3 interceptions, but two of them have been passes that were tipped at the line.  The Lions have the talent to play with anybody if they aren't beating themselves and the Packers offense is too good to give them extra possessions or worse, allowing their defense to score to put points on the board as well.

Balance on offense:
In their three wins this season, the Lions have had success running the football with either Reggie Bush, Joique bell or both.  Detroit's rushing total against Washington was only 68 yards but they ran effectively enough to keep the chains moving, keep the Redskins honest, and Bell was also able to find the end zone on the ground.  Green Bay's rushing defense is giving up just 93 yards per game and the Lions are running for 95 yards per game so it seems likely the total rushing yards for Detroit will be between 90-100 yards, that would be a win for Detroit.  If the packers can limit the lions to closer to 75 yards or less, there will be a lot of pressure on Stafford to have to throw 50 plus times. 

Contain the pass rush against Rodgers: 
When the Lions have put pressure on Rodgers in the past, he has done a good job of breaking contain and scrambling for positive yards, often picking up critical first downs with his legs.  The Lions have been one of the best teams in the NFL at pressuring the QB this year and that trend needs to continue for Detroit to have a chance in this game but they cant allow Rodgers to break free of the pocket and use his athletic ability to pick up cheap first downs.  Rodgers has run for an average of 22 first downs per year in his first 5 years as the starting quarterback in Green Bay.  However, Green Bay has had issues protecting Rodgers as he has been sacked 10 times this season in 3 games, so the Lions front four should present a huge challenge for the Green Bay's patchwork offensive line.

Finishing drives in the end zone: 
Both these teams have plenty of offensive weapons to move the ball up and down the field, but Rodgers has been one of the best red zone quarterbacks of all time, while the Lions have struggled punching the ball into the end zone and instead have often times had to settle for field goals.  The Packers have attempted just 4 field goals in 10 games because they finish drives in the end zone.  While 5 of David Akers 10 field goal attempts this season have been the result of a stalled drive in the red zone.  If the Detroit offense wants to keep pace, or put Green Bay away, they will need to finish drives with 7 points instead of 3. 

Game notes:

• Injury updates:  Detroit's Calvin Johnson, Glover Quin were both listed as questionable but should play Sunday.  Houston will likely be a game time decision.
• For the Packers, James Starks and cornerback Casey Hayward are out.  No Packers were listed as questionable.
• Not one of the 13 person panel at ESPN.com  picked the Lions to win.
• A Lions win and a Bears loss would essentially give the Lions a 2 game lead over every team in the division 5 weeks into the season. 
• Reggie Bush is getting MVP love, coming in at #4 this week, behind only Manning, Brees and Brady according to Dan Graziano of ESPN.com
• The Lions signed WR Kevin Ogletree this week, we will see if he sees any action this week as Patrick Edwards should be returning from injury as well.  

Prediction:
The Lions will make it close, but the streak continues.  Green Bay 33, Detroit 30