Lions, Bears clash for division lead

The Lions rebounded from disappointment in Arizona with a strong effort last week beating  the Redskins in a place they had never won before.  Chicago is coming off a disappointing end to their season with a change at the helm.  Lovie Smith was replaced by Marc Trestman and the Bears are off to a great start, currently 3-0 and sitting in first place in the division.  The Bears have seen dramatic improvement over previous seasons in keeping their talented quarterback jay cutler protected and giving him time to throw the ball.  Chicago's turnover margin is also impressive as they continue to find ways to take the ball away from the opponents offense.  However, the Bears have struggled to stop teams from moving the ball, as they rank in the bottom half of the league in both yards and points allowed.  The Bears offense has scored the same number of points as their defense has given up in the first three weeks.  The Lions are +6, meaning there offense has scored six more points then the defense has allowed.  Both sides lost important starters to injury this week as Chicago starting defensive tackle Henry Melton suffered a torn acl and is out for the season while Detroit Lions wide receiver Nate Burleson was injured in a car accident and is out for about two months recovering from two broken bones in his arm.  The Lions have been the best team in the NFL defensively at getting off the field, allowing just a 26.5% 3rd down conversions against,  while Chicago's offense is top 10 in the league at 42.9% 3rd down conversions.  Meanwhile Detroit's offense is in the bottom 10 in the league at converting 3rd downs at just 32.4%, however the Bears defense has allowed 44.7% conversion rate against which is bottom ten in the league.  Which ever team can convert and which team gets off the field on third down will go a long way to deciding this game.  Detroit is at home, they have better offensive and defensive numbers, thus far but Chicago has the advantage in intangibles such as special teams and takeaways, and have owned the lions lately winning 9 of the last 10 meetings.  Here are my 5 things to watch:

Chicago's offensive line vs. Detroit's defensive front four.
Cutler has been focusing on getting the ball out quicker, the line has protected him better and that has led to a major decrease in the amount of hits cutler has taken early this season.  While Detroit leads the league with only two sacks given up, Chicago is second with only 3 allowed.  Cutler doesn't get credit for it often but he moves in the pocket well.  The Lions front four is considered by many to be the most disruptive in the NFL but the Bears revamped offensive line has done a good job against the likes of the Bengals, Vikings and Steelers thus far.  Rookies Kyle long and Jordan Mills have played well in combination on the right side.  If Cutler has time to take advantage of Detroit's secondary the Lions wont be happy with the result.  Suh and company will need to get in Cutler's face and disrupt his timing and place the Bears offense under some adversity if they hope to win. 

Turnover battle.
The Bears have consistently been one of the best teams at creating turnovers and putting points on the board as a defensive unit and this year is no exception.  The Lions will have to make a conscience effort to protect the ball in their arms at all cost this week.  The Lions won the turnover battle in both games they've won this season and are +3 overall this year.  The bears were only +1 through their first two games and barely escaped with two home wins, but were +5 last week in a routing the Steelers.  If Detroit can play the Bears close to even, they will have a good opportunity to pull out a victory.

Lions secondary play makers.
The lions lost Nate Burleson but are getting back Reggie Bush this week.  Ryan Broyles appears healthy and was solid last week as was rookie tight end Joseph Fauria, who scored his second TD of the year.  The Lions will need production from all those guys along with Joique Bell who has been great so far this year, averaging nearly 100 total yards of offense and a touchdown per game thus far.  The Lions should use more sets with both Bush and Bell on the field as they try to get these two players as many touches as possible.  When Stafford drops back to throw, expect Broyles and Fauria to collect some of the vacated targets in Burleson's absence.  Chicago will most likely try and make everyone but Calvin beat them so how these players perform will be the key to Detroit's offense. 

Special teams.
The Bears have won numerous games over the past decade because of outstanding special teams play.  The Lions have lost numerous games over the past decade because of poor special teams play.  Advantage Chicago.  The Lions cant afford to have special teams penalties or miscues or allow the Bears to get easy special teams points.  Devin Hester is one of the best return men of all time and has the ability to change the game every time he touches the ball.  the Lions coverage units have been solid and Martin has been good on kickoffs and punts this season but that can change in the blink of an eye with Hester back there. 

Johnson vs. Tillman.
Tillman has done a nice job in his career vs. Calvin Johnson, limiting his impact as a big play threat.  Tillman is one of the bigger and stronger corners in the league and matches up well with Johnson given the amount of time they've spent playing against each other.  Johnson and Stafford have done a nice job early this season of taking what the defense has given them and not forcing the ball down the field.  Johnson is a deep threat even if he's not running deep so most teams are keeping their safeties high, so Johnson has not had many opportunities for the home run yet.  The Bears have been one of the best at rolling coverage toward Calvin, but if he can shake loose for some big plays it will take pressure off the rest of the team. 

Notes:

• The Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson watch is being suspended until further notice.  We will check on in the league leaders around the halfway point around week 9 and see what kind of pace they are on, unless one of these guys has a couple monster games in the next few week.
• Injury update.  Bears Charles Tillman is listed as questionable, but expect him to play.  Lions Ziggy Ansah is listed as questionable, expect him to play.  Both right tackles are listed as questionable, that's a situation to keep and eye on.  Watch for L'Adrian Waddle to maybe sneak in and get some playing time if neither one of these guys are 100%
• The Bears have come out of the gates strong the last couple of seasons.  7-1 in 2012, 7-3 in 2011, 5-2 in 2010.
• Detroit's defense has given up fewer yards and points then the Bears this year.
• Chicago's offense has scored 24.7 points per game.  Detroit's has scored 25 ppg.
• Sam Martin was named NFC special teams player of the week for week 3.  Go Sam!    

Prediction:  Lions take the division lead at the quarter poll.  Detroit 27, Chicago 23.