The NFL kicks off Thursday night so it's time to preview what is sure to be a roller coaster season for the Lions. Were going to break down each position group and the schedule before giving our season ending prediction. Let's get it started!
Quarterbacks:
While Calvin Johnson is best and most irreplaceable player on the roster, Matthew Stafford is undoubtedly the most important player in terms of how the lions season is going to play out. The NFL is a quarterback driven league, and the Lions have pinned their hopes on Stafford's rocket arm. Stafford's preseason results, or lack there of, have the lions fan base quite concerned headed into week 1. Stafford's accuracy was a concern coming out of Georgia and he hasn't been consistently accurate so far this preseason. During the Lions playoff season of 2011 Stafford had a career best completion percentage of 63.5%. The main area where Stafford's accuracy has been an issue has been in the red zone. In 2011 Stafford had 29 TD passes in the red zone. in 2012, just 15. Stafford needs to be accurate, and more important, accurate in the red zone, finishing drives off with TD's instead of FG's. When you lose 8 games by 7 points or less, 5 of them by 4 points or less, scoring touchdowns instead of FG's makes a huge difference. Sean Hill had a great preseason and continues to be one of the best back up QB's in the NFL. Kellen Moore will be inactive most weeks but had a nice camp as well and deserved to make the roster.
Running Backs:
While Reggie Bush hasn't made a big splash in the running game so far, it's clear he adds a dimension the lions have lacked since losing Javid Best to early retirement. Bush may well end with 80+ catches this year and should find plenty of room to operate underneath Calvin Johnson. Bush demonstrated an ability to run between the tackles in Miami, but we didn't see much of that this preseason, though there hasn't been many holes for bush to run through. Joique Bell has been the stud of the offense this preseason and has outplayed Mikel Leshoure in every facet in earning the number two reps. I actually think Joique Bell will lead the Lions in rushing yards this year, I think he tops 750. As far as Leshoure is concerned, I think he may struggle to find a place on the active roster each week. He doesn't play special teams like Riddick, he doesn't catch the ball or run routes out of the slot like Riddick can, and with Bush and Bell clearly ahead of him as runners, Leshoure may be the odd man out each Sunday. Riddick showed his versatile skill set during the preseason and has earned the label of being "a good football player" and should find time on special teams. Montell Owens will start the season on the short term IR and when he returns should be immediately inserted onto all the special teams.
Wide Receivers:
This group had a rough camp. Johnson has been banged up and only played two series this preseason. Without CJ in the lineup, the lions are not winning many games this year, the coaches know that so they kept him out. He is a workout warrior so I wouldn't be too concerned with his conditioning going into week 1. Behind Johnson the questions are many. Burleson looked old this preseason returning from a broken leg that sidelined him for the second half of 2012. Brolyes has been brought along slowly, recovering from an injury of his own, but if he is healthy I think he goes a long way to making this group much more consistent. He has an uncanny knack for getting open and making tough catches in traffic. Patrick Edwards could also be a guy who can help this group out if he can demonstrate more consistency in his route running and catching. He should see more one on one coverage with CJ in the line up and he has speed to exploit those types of mismatches. Kris Durham adds size and physicality to the group and Michael Spurlock will most likely handle the return duties to start the season.
Tight Ends:
Lets just be honest and understand how this is going to play out. At some point this season, probably sooner then later, Pettigrew is going to drop a pass and the Lions fans are going to jump all over him. With all the talk about how hard he has worked and how he owned up to the below average 2012 season, It still just never seems like he catches the ball cleanly. It almost looks like his hands don't react quickly enough when the ball hits them, so it bounces around a little and sometimes he catches it and sometimes it hits the turf. This is Pettigrew so as long as he is playing we might as well accept it. Scheffler seems to have a nose for the end zone but he plays small for a tight end, he's not physical in the box or when the ball is in the air. Joseph Fauria has been a nice find for the Lions and will serve as their third TE. He is very similar to Scheffler in terms of his blocking ability at the moment but he has time to improve where as Scheffler kind of is what he is at this point in his career. However, Fauria seems to know how to use his massive 6'7 frame to his advantage when the ball is in the air and with a little seasoning I think he can become a big time weapon for the lions down the road. Michael Williams will spend the season on IR, but could be a replacement for Pettigrew down the road if he continues to struggle.
Offensive Line:
When we talk about Mathew Stafford being the turning point of the team, its only fair to point out that he shouldn't have to do it alone. The offensive line will be key in allowing Stafford the time he needs to make accurate throws. The O-line has been in rebuilding mode this off season but it seems that after all the battles played out through the preseason, the two names most people had pegged for starting positions came out on top. Larry Warford, the lions 3rd round pick this past April and Jason Fox appear to have wrapped up the starting spots on the right side. Riley Reiff will begin what Lions fans hope will be a long and prosperous tenure over at LT. The biggest challenge facing this line is continuity. The Lions had started the same offensive line for nearly 3 years and now are replacing 3 guys in one off season, with two of the spots interchanging until the final days of camp. There's no doubt Jason Fox, Larry Warford and Riley Reiff have the talent and potential to actually be upgrades at each of their respective positions, but only time will tell. Raiola added some weight and has been better in pass protection up the middle, and Sims has been solid as usual at LG. The Lions have good depth with Corey Hillard at tackle but are not as deep up the middle. Undrafted rookie tackle Ladrian Waddle was a major surprise during the preseason, earning first string reps at times by the end of camp.
Defensive Line:
Again, while Stafford is the key, having a Defense that doesn't allow teams to run and throw all over it, and maybe generates some turnovers once in a while would go a long way towards taking pressure off the QB. It all starts up front as the Lions have counted on the defensive line to be their strongest position group for the past 3 years. In 2011, it was as good as advertised. In 2012, however, they were just average. The lions made a philosophical change when adding talent to their D-line this off season, looking to add players who were taller and had longer arms in order to minimize the passing windows and so far the results have been impressive. Ndamukong Suh has been an absolute force and should continue that trend in the regular season. Nick Fairey has been equally as impressive as the two of them have clogged up the middle, stopping the run, collapsing the pocket and not allowing the edge rushers to be double teamed so they can get to the QB. Ziggy Ansah looks to have a very bright future and the "project" label has all been wiped away. He should pay immediate dividends and will only continue to get better as a complete DE, not just a pass rush specialist. This undisclosed injury does have me a bit concerned heading into week 1 however. The other rotational ends have been solid, Willie young and Jason Jones could have monster years playing next to Suh, Fairley and Ansah. The veteran depth of Idonije, Mosely, and Bannon should help this group be a dominating force all year. Rookie Devin Taylor had a nice preseason, but needs to get stronger to make the kind of impact the Lions are hoping for from him down the road.
Line Backers:
Outside of the wide reievers, the line backers are probably the thinnest group talent wise. Tulloch is a tackling machine and Levy is solid on the outside. Ashlee Palmer won the starting job over Tahir Whitehead and Travis Lewis but he is probably best suited as a reserve and special teams ace. I think he will be fine against the run but I don't like his instincts to cover and make tackles in the open field. Whitehead and Lewis are young and inexperienced, again both are probably best suited for special teams roles. I thought Rocky McIntosh was a nice training camp addition and I think cutting him is putting a lot of potentially disastrous faith in Palmer, Lewis and Whitehead.
Update: The Lions re-signed McIntosh, filling the roster spot vacated by placing Montell Owens on the short term IR.
Defensive Backs:
If there is one group that has taken a considerable step forward from August first to September first its the corners. The tandem of Chris Houston and Darius Slay has a chance to be the best set of corners the lions have had in a long time. Slay has size, ball skills, and confidence to spare. As he grows into his role he has a chance to supplant Houston as the Lions #1 corner. The addition of Mathis and a healthy Bill Bentley make a solid set of 4 cover guys. Jonte Green had a decent rookie campaign but seemed to be MIA during the preseason. He adds quality, developing depth if he's actually around. The safety position has also been upgraded with the addition of Glover Quinn. He should be a steadying force on the back end. Don Carey showed he can be a solid back up and the late addition of Dejuan Gomes adds depth if Delmas cant stay on the field. If Delmas can stay healthy and contribute consistently, with the pressure the front 4 should be producing, the secondary has the chance to be the best its been in my lifetime. That's not saying much, but for once I don't think its our weakest level of our defense.
Specialists:
Oh special teams how I loathe thee. It's impossible to know just how different things would have been had the Lions special teams not imploded in weeks 3 and 4 against the Titans and Vikings last year but the Lions would have been 3-1 instead of 1-3 headed into their bye week, feeling much better about themselves and their standings. For as long as I can remember, the lions kick coverage units have been atrocious. It finally seems to have been a point of emphasis this off season and if the preseason is any indication, those units look much improved. David Akers takes over the kicking duty for the legendary Jason Hanson and has looked much healthier then he was in San Fran last year. Fifth round pick Sam Martin has been an instant upgrade in both punting and kickoffs and looks to have justified his selection.
Season Prediction:
I think this years Lions will be much closer to the 2011 version than the 2012 version. Looking at the schedule, it looks tough. Nine games against playoff teams from a year ago and that doesn't include talented teams like the Cowboys, Giants, Steelers and improved teams like the Eagles and Buccaneers.
vsMinnesota - W
@Arizona - W
@Washington - L
vsChicago - W
@Green Bay - L
@Cleveland - W
vsCincinnati - L
vsDallas - W
@Chicago - L
@Pittsburgh - W
vsTampa Bay - W
vsGreen Bay - L
@Philadelphia - W
vsBaltimore - W
vsNew York - L
@Minnesota - W
Still, I'm optimistic and my gut tells me 10-6, just making it into the playoffs by winning in Minnesota on the last day of the season. Come back tomorrow as I recap the Tigers second half following the conclusion of the Boston series.
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