Monday, September 30, 2013

Tigers sleepwalk into postseason, get swept by Marlins.

The Tigers have wrapped up the division crown and were all but locked into the third seed as they headed down to Miami to conclude up the regular season.  They treated this series like a vacation and it showed.  Let's break down each game:

Game 1:  Marlins 3, Tigers 2.
After serving his 50 game suspension, Jhonny Peralta returned to the Tigers line up, starting the
game in left field.  While obviously the Tigers wanted to see if Jhonny could hold his own in the outfield, it was equally important to see if his timing at the plate had been interrupted.  Jhonny came to swing tonight, looking like he hadn't missed much of a beat after posting all star caliber numbers before his suspension.  Peralta's return to the six hole in the lineup should provide a huge boost to an offense that is struggling to score runs the last month of the season.  As for his play in left field, Peralta had just two fielding opportunities, a fly ball he caught that was routine, while the other play cost the Tigers a run.  A softly hit ball over a third baseman's head should never have scored the runner from first base, but Peralta took a poor angle to the ball and didn't seem urgent getting there and instead of just two runs crossing the plate, the Marlins took a 3-0 lead.  That is something that he can get better at, but will those improvements show in time for the postseason?  If Peralta starts in left field it will be a big time risk and Jim Leyland will either be genius if he drives in runs or the goat if his defense costs the Tigers a game.  Leyland managed the game much like a spring training game, subbing guys in and out at will.  He accomplished two goals in this game.  Scheduled starter Rick Porcello was moved to the bullpen and got some action as a reliever, a role he will play in the postseason.  Porcello's role out of the bullpen should be to start an inning fresh, because he usually will give up a hit per inning, allowing 185 hits in 177 innings this year.  That's not a problem when there are no runners on base, but if you bring him in with runners in scoring position, like Jim did in this game, that's not setting him up for success.  That situation calls for a guy like Alburqureque or Rondon, who are more swing and miss pitchers, rather then pitching to contact like Porcello.  We will see how Porcello is used but he can come in and give you some solid innings if he is used correctly.  Leyland also got out of the game getting his regulars some rest and kept everyone healthy.  Jose Iglesias returned for his first start after being hit by a pitch on his hand against Seattle over a week ago.  Miguel Cabrera received a nice standing ovation and cheers from the Marlins crowd every time he came to the plate.  Maybe its just me but its weird to cheer for an opposing player louder then any of your own, right?  And I understand the first time he comes to the plate, but every time is kind of crossing the line.  Miami fans should be ashamed!

Game 2:  Marlins 2, Tigers 1.     
The Tigers pitching staff celebrated today, at the beginning of the game at least, as Anibal Sanchez
recorded his first strikeout of the game, The Tigers set the record for most stakeouts in a season, breaking the old mark of 1404 set by the Cubs in 2002.  Sanchez was great, much better then his last few starts, as he threw his off speed pitches for strikes more often, using only 33 pitches through 3 innings, while striking out 5 of 9 batters faced, he was perfect through 3.  Leyland only kept him in for 5 innings, before handing the ball over to the bullpen which was solid until the 9th inning.  Downs, Alburquerque and Smyly combined for 3 hitless innings and the tigers led 1-0 going to the 9th.  Enter usually reliable Benoit, who proceeded to give up a single-walk-single combination to allow the Marlins to tie the game.  He sure has picked a bad week to blow his first two saves of the year.  Evan Reed came in for the 10th and was unbelievably wild, walking two batters and hitting one in the head before allowing a bases loaded single to end the game.  Again Leyland just wanted the game over so he left Reed in there, even though he was awful, but Benoit is the real concern.  Even the best closers blow saves here and there and lets hope Benoit is just getting his out of his system before the playoffs.  His confidence and composure in the 9th inning come playoff time will be absolutely critical if the Tigers plan on making a deep run this October.  Jhonny Peralta continued to swing the bat well, he has 3 hits in his 9 at-bats since returning from suspension.  He didn't see any action in left field today as Sanchez was striking everyone out and he played a couple of uneventful innings at shortstop as well.  The young Marlins starter Eovaldi showed some bright flashes, his slider was deadly when he controlled it, but he will need to mix the slider in more effectively as his career progresses, as well as developing a change up to keep hitters off his 97 mph fastball because it has no movement.  The Tigers had 9 hits, but were 0-5 with runners in scoring position and are just 2-12 thus far in the series. 

Game 3: Marlins 1, Tigers 0.
Well that was quite a way to end the regular season.  The Tigers offense was asleep, all game long,
literally.  The Detroit Tigers, the number two ranked offense in all of baseball, was no-hit in game number 162.  Miami's pitcher Henderson Alverez needed just 99 pitches to strike out 4, walk just 1 and record 27 outs without allowing a hit.  He didn't get to celebrate the way most no-hitters are celebrated because his offense gave him no support through the first 8 innings and the game was tied 0-0 going to the bottom of the 9th.  That was due to three Tigers starters who combined to allow just 4 hits, walk just one, and strikeout 13 Marlins.  Verlander was dominant for his second consecutive start, the big test will to see if he can carry that momentum into the playoffs, but the Tigers and their fans must feel the best they have all season about their ace regaining his perennial Cy Young contender form.  Doug Fister came in to pitch an inning of relief since he wont take the mound again for a minimum of 9 days, if the series goes to game 4.  Rick Porcello followed with another easy inning in relief, starting off the inning with no one on base.  Then it was Luke Putkonon's turn.  Two singles, a wild pitch and a walk loaded the bases with two outs.  Luke then threw his second wild pitch of the inning, allowing Stanton to score from third, and the Marlins to complete the no hitter for Alverez.  Johnny Peralta was 0-3 with three fly outs in this game and finished his three games back 3 for 12, but he didn't strike out, which shows that his timing was not affected much over the layoff.  Hopefully for the Tigers, during the next four days off they can find their offense before game 1 versus the A's on Friday.  It will mostly come down to clutch hitting, getting runners home when they are in scoring position.  The other big question will be the starting rotation, and what order Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez are slotted in the first three games.    

Series notes:
  • Cecil Fielder made an appearance, talking to all the Tigers players in the dugout while game 1 was going on.  If the division wasn't wrapped up there's no way Leyland allows distractions like that so that should tell you how much he cared about this series.  He couldn't get it over with fast enough.
  • Polanco made a great catch in game 1, leaping over the railing into the stands for the out. 
  • In game 1 umpire Tom Hallion's strike zone was essentially anything within the white lines.  Awful.
  • The Tigers finished the year striking out a new major league record 1428 batters this season.
  • The Tigers finished the season with a 93-69 record, just as I predicted they would nearly a month ago.  Cleveland finished 92-70, just one game behind Detroit.
  • I would start JV in game 1, Sanchez in game 2 and Max at home in game 3.  That way, Verlander could go in game 5 if needed and Max could start game 1 and 5 of the ALCS if they get there and Sanchez could start game 2 and 6 and JV would be able to come back for games 3 and 7 in the ALCS.
Up next:
The Tigers travel to Oakland for the first two games of the best of 5 ALDS.

Friday, September 27, 2013

Lions, Bears clash for division lead

The Lions rebounded from disappointment in Arizona with a strong effort last week beating  the Redskins in a place they had never won before.  Chicago is coming off a disappointing end to their season with a change at the helm.  Lovie Smith was replaced by Marc Trestman and the Bears are off to a great start, currently 3-0 and sitting in first place in the division.  The Bears have seen dramatic improvement over previous seasons in keeping their talented quarterback jay cutler protected and giving him time to throw the ball.  Chicago's turnover margin is also impressive as they continue to find ways to take the ball away from the opponents offense.  However, the Bears have struggled to stop teams from moving the ball, as they rank in the bottom half of the league in both yards and points allowed.  The Bears offense has scored the same number of points as their defense has given up in the first three weeks.  The Lions are +6, meaning there offense has scored six more points then the defense has allowed.  Both sides lost important starters to injury this week as Chicago starting defensive tackle Henry Melton suffered a torn acl and is out for the season while Detroit Lions wide receiver Nate Burleson was injured in a car accident and is out for about two months recovering from two broken bones in his arm.  The Lions have been the best team in the NFL defensively at getting off the field, allowing just a 26.5% 3rd down conversions against,  while Chicago's offense is top 10 in the league at 42.9% 3rd down conversions.  Meanwhile Detroit's offense is in the bottom 10 in the league at converting 3rd downs at just 32.4%, however the Bears defense has allowed 44.7% conversion rate against which is bottom ten in the league.  Which ever team can convert and which team gets off the field on third down will go a long way to deciding this game.  Detroit is at home, they have better offensive and defensive numbers, thus far but Chicago has the advantage in intangibles such as special teams and takeaways, and have owned the lions lately winning 9 of the last 10 meetings.  Here are my 5 things to watch:

Chicago's offensive line vs. Detroit's defensive front four.
Cutler has been focusing on getting the ball out quicker, the line has protected him better and that has led to a major decrease in the amount of hits cutler has taken early this season.  While Detroit leads the league with only two sacks given up, Chicago is second with only 3 allowed.  Cutler doesn't get credit for it often but he moves in the pocket well.  The Lions front four is considered by many to be the most disruptive in the NFL but the Bears revamped offensive line has done a good job against the likes of the Bengals, Vikings and Steelers thus far.  Rookies Kyle long and Jordan Mills have played well in combination on the right side.  If Cutler has time to take advantage of Detroit's secondary the Lions wont be happy with the result.  Suh and company will need to get in Cutler's face and disrupt his timing and place the Bears offense under some adversity if they hope to win. 


Turnover battle.
The Bears have consistently been one of the best teams at creating turnovers and putting points on the board as a defensive unit and this year is no exception.  The Lions will have to make a conscience effort to protect the ball in their arms at all cost this week.  The Lions won the turnover battle in both games they've won this season and are +3 overall this year.  The bears were only +1 through their first two games and barely escaped with two home wins, but were +5 last week in a routing the Steelers.  If Detroit can play the Bears close to even, they will have a good opportunity to pull out a victory.


Lions secondary play makers.
The lions lost Nate Burleson but are getting back Reggie Bush this week.  Ryan Broyles appears healthy and was solid last week as was rookie tight end Joseph Fauria, who scored his second TD of the year.  The Lions will need production from all those guys along with Joique Bell who has been great so far this year, averaging nearly 100 total yards of offense and a touchdown per game thus far.  The Lions should use more sets with both Bush and Bell on the field as they try to get these two players as many touches as possible.  When Stafford drops back to throw, expect Broyles and Fauria to collect some of the vacated targets in Burleson's absence.  Chicago will most likely try and make everyone but Calvin beat them so how these players perform will be the key to Detroit's offense. 


Special teams.
The Bears have won numerous games over the past decade because of outstanding special teams play.  The Lions have lost numerous games over the past decade because of poor special teams play.  Advantage Chicago.  The Lions cant afford to have special teams penalties or miscues or allow the Bears to get easy special teams points.  Devin Hester is one of the best return men of all time and has the ability to change the game every time he touches the ball.  the Lions coverage units have been solid and Martin has been good on kickoffs and punts this season but that can change in the blink of an eye with Hester back there. 


Johnson vs. Tillman.
Tillman has done a nice job in his career vs. Calvin Johnson, limiting his impact as a big play threat.  Tillman is one of the bigger and stronger corners in the league and matches up well with Johnson given the amount of time they've spent playing against each other.  Johnson and Stafford have done a nice job early this season of taking what the defense has given them and not forcing the ball down the field.  Johnson is a deep threat even if he's not running deep so most teams are keeping their safeties high, so Johnson has not had many opportunities for the home run yet.  The Bears have been one of the best at rolling coverage toward Calvin, but if he can shake loose for some big plays it will take pressure off the rest of the team. 


Notes:
  • The Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson watch is being suspended until further notice.  We will check on in the league leaders around the halfway point around week 9 and see what kind of pace they are on, unless one of these guys has a couple monster games in the next few week.
  • Injury update.  Bears Charles Tillman is listed as questionable, but expect him to play.  Lions Ziggy Ansah is listed as questionable, expect him to play.  Both right tackles are listed as questionable, that's a situation to keep and eye on.  Watch for L'Adrian Waddle to maybe sneak in and get some playing time if neither one of these guys are 100%
  • The Bears have come out of the gates strong the last couple of seasons.  7-1 in 2012, 7-3 in 2011, 5-2 in 2010.
  • Detroit's defense has given up fewer yards and points then the Bears this year.
  • Chicago's offense has scored 24.7 points per game.  Detroit's has scored 25 ppg.
  • Sam Martin was named NFC special teams player of the week for week 3.  Go Sam!    
Prediction:  Lions take the division lead at the quarter poll.  Detroit 27, Chicago 23.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Tiger clinch division title, take 2 of 3 from Twins.

The Tigers came into Minnesota with the intension of clinching the division before leaving town.  Let's break down the game action:

Game 1: Twins 4, Tigers 3.
The Tigers seemed to have this one in the bag, the Minnesota bats had been quiet for most of the night, the Tigers had a 3-0 lead, then the Detroit bullpen
happened.  To be fair to Al Alburquerque, he was sharp once again in getting out of Drew Smyly's jam, but Smyly came in for Verlander to start the 7th and gave up two straight hits before exiting.  Veras came on in the 8th and gave up a walk-double-double combo to bring the twins within one, 3-2.  Benoit had to come in to save the day as he usually does and he got out of the 8th inning with no further damage.  Then came the 9th and Brian Dozier took Juaquin Benoit deep to tie the game at three as he handed Benoit his first blown save in 23 chances.  The twins took advantage of the rest of the Tigers bullpen as Alverez barely escaped the 10th and Luke Putkonen took the loss after a single-wild pitch-single combination drove home the winning run for the Twins in the bottom of the 11th.  Outside of our collapsing bullpen the other biggest takeaway from this game was Justin Verlander's "stuff" was electric, much more reminiscent of JV from the previous two seasons.  His fastball was consistently above 95 and his curve and slider were as sharp as they have been all year.  Verlander recorded 10 consecutive outs via the strikeout between innings 1 and 4.  In the first inning he was trying to hit the outside corner too closely again, almost aiming like he was in his last start, but by the third inning he let loose and just started throwing as hard as he could, almost daring the twins to try and hit it.  The Twins starter Mike Pelfrey had been horrible in September, in his three previous starts he combined to last just 13 and a third total innings and gave up 15 earned runs for an ERA over 10!  Again tonight he threw first pitch strikes to only half the batters he faced (14/27) and walked away allowing 6 hits over 6 innings and only one run, stranding 8 runners.  That's not good enough from the Tigers offense who's runs came courtesy of a Torii hunter ground rule double in the 5th inning and a double-single-single-double combo in the 8th. 

Game 2:  Tigers 4, Twins 2.
With the bullpen woes the Tigers have had in September, getting Bruce Rondon back was a shot in the arm, a big triple digit shot in
the arm.  The offense got going too, kind of.  Detroit hit 3 home runs in the 4th inning off of Minnesota starter Scott Diamond, each off different pitches.  Martinez took a fastball out in a hurry, Infante waited out the change up and Jackson took a curve off his shoe tops and that inning accounted for the entirety of Tigers scoring for the night.  The highlight of the Tigers night came in the 8th inning when Bruce Rondon came in for the first time in about 3 weeks and absolutely blew away the Twins hitters, striking out the side facing the 3-4-5 hitters, not one of able to make contact.  For a bullpen that's had its collective struggles, Rondon gives the Tigers some late inning confidence.  With the addition of one of the starting pitchers, most likely Rick Porcello, the Tigers will get another quality pitcher added to pen a week from Friday, when the ALDS gets underway.  The Tigers managed 11 hits but were just 1-8 with runners in scoring position.  The offense got its long ball back, but I wouldn't say there out of the dog house just yet.  This isn't a very good Minnesota staff but they have looked solid against the Tigers through the first 2 games.  Ryan Doumit had a big pinch hit double in game 1 of this series to tie the game and hit a monster home run in game two that ESPN reported as just 398 feet, shorter then both Infante's and Jackson's home runs but it sure felt like it was a lot longer.  The Twins threatened with two more singles in the 7th but Smyly and Alburquerque came in and ended the inning with an assist from Price Fielder, who made a great pick from a ball thrown in the dirt by Santiago.  Fister was strong allowing two runs over 6 and a third, retiring 11 straight in the middle innings and picking up his 14th win of the season.

Game 3:  Tigers 1, Twins 0.
The Indians gave it a good run, they've won 11 of their last 13 games and are now currently slotted in the second wild card position
because of it.  But the Tigers stayed focused over the past three weeks and finally, by the narrowest of margins tonight, clinched their third straight division title with a 1-0 in Minnesota.  Austin Jackson's lead off triple was followed by a base hit from Torri Hunter for a 1-0 lead.  The opening two batters combined to score the only run the Tigers offense could muster but it was all they needed.  Max Scherzer won his 21st game of season, though it was a bit rocky at times, especially early while he was having trouble keeping square with his front shoulder.  Max ended up walking six batters, but only gave up two hits in seven innings.  He struck out 10 batters and the bullpen added 3 more strikeouts as Veras, Smyly and Benoit combined to close out the last two innings for the 93rd win of the season.  The Twins ran themselves out of a scoring chance in the 5th after an infield single and a walk put two men on, Scherzer struck out Brian Dozier and Avila threw out Pedro Florimon trying to steal third for the unconventional double play.  Kevin Correia was again very good for the Twins, scattering 7 hits over 7 innings, only allowing 1 runner into scoring position all game.  That run scored however and it was the difference.  Jackson in fact was the only Tiger to reach scoring position as he had a double to go along with his first inning triple.  Torii hunter also had two hits as he raised his average to .304.  He had been struggling in September until Jim Leyland gave him a day off against Seattle, his average having dipped to .294.  Since then, Torii has 15 hits in 7 games with 7 runs batted in.  Leyland also didn't want to have to use Smyly, Alburquerque and Benoit out of the bullpen tonight and he didn't want Max to throw a season high 123 pitches either but he did what had to be done to clinch the division. 

Series notes:
  • The tigers pitchers struck out the Twins hitters 44 times in 3 games accounting for 51% of the outs.
  • The Tigers hit .263 in this series, nearly 20 points below their season average.  Twins pitching came into this series allowing a .305 batting average against in the month of September. 
  • Austin Jackson was on a mini slump but seemed to right the ship midway through the series, combining to hit for the cycle over the last two games.
  • When Miguel Cabrera hits a groundball with men on base, opposing teams take their time, get the first out and still don't rush to turn the double play with him half way up the line.
  • Victor Martinez career batting average is .303.  He is currently hitting .302 this year. Consistency personified.
  • Jose Iglesias came in to play defense in the bottom of the 9th in game three, and should be in the starting line up come Friday in Miami.
  • Bruce Rondon had soreness in his elbow after his spectacular inning of work.  Hopefully another 10 days off will get him 100%. 
  • Let the Jhonny Peralta circus begin.

Up next:
Final 3 game set of the year, in Miami to face the Marlins and get tuned up for the postseason.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Lions defeat history, Redskins, move to 2-1.

The lions are no longer the laughing stock of Washington DC.  There performance wasn't flawless, but it was gutsy and resilient and that's a lot of what this team has been lacking the past few years, decades, millennia.  The Lions took the first punch, when Stafford's timing was thrown off by a good jam at the line on Calvin by DeAneglo Hall, the quick slant  ended up in Halls lap and he retuned it 17 yards for the first score of the game.  All the signs pointed to 0-22 at that moment, however, the Lions offense responded with an 85 yard drive, aided by two Washington penalties and capped off by a surging, powerful 12 yard plunge by Joique Bell to level the score at 7.  After the Lions defense forced a three and out, Lions marched right back into the Redskins territory, picking up chunks of yards through the air along the way.  On third and goal, following two incompletions and under heavy pressure, Stafford lofted the ball up to his big 6'7" rookie tight end Joseph Fauria who snatched the ball over two defenders for a 14-7 lead.  Willie young forced an ill -advised throw that was intercepted but they could not take advantage as they punted and allowed the redskins to tie the game, as the Washington running game got going and Alfred Morris cut back against the grain and beat the Detroit containment to the pylon, showing impressive speed along the way.  The Lions ensuing possession again found them picking up big yardage through the air.  Nate Burleson seemed to easliy slip in and out the Redskins zone to the tune of 116 receiving yards throughout the game.  His 41 yard reception had the Lions in the red zone towards the end of the half but three incompletions, all targeting CJ, and the Lions had to settle for a field goal and a halftime lead of 17-14.  The Lions gave up a field goal to begin the second half as Sam Martins kickoff went out of bounds and gave the Redskins great starting field position.  After alternating 5 consecutive punts, the Redskins were driving in the 4th quarter when RG3 eluded the Lions pass rush and took off for big yardage.  He dove forward to avoid a hit and the ball popped loose as he hit the turf.  Since he was untouched and went head first, the ball was free and the Lions recovered.  They drove down to the Washington 10 yard line but again settled for a field goal.  The next series was the turning point of the game as the Redskins looked to take the lead after the Washington offensive line gave Griffin an eternity to throw and he connected with Aldrick Robinson for an apparent 57 yard touchdown.  Robinson, however, did not complete the process of the catch as he hit the ground, the ball moved around in his arms and came in contact with the painted turf.  The next snap was deflected off a tight end going in motion and Griffin chased it down setting up a 3rd and 20, leading to an eventual punt.  The Lions responded by marching into the red zone once again, this time finding pay dirt as Stafford hooked up with Johnson who spun into the end zone, with just 4 minutes left giving the Lions a ten point lead 27-17.  The lions ran a prevent defense and gave up a field goal, then Washington got the ball back with 38 seconds left after a Detroit three and out forced a punt.  The Redskins were able to throw the hail marry into the end zone but the ball was knocked down as the Lions ended three quarters of a century worth of futility.  Lets break down the performance of each position group:

Quarterbacks: Matthew Stafford struggled early, being sacked on the first play, throwing incomplete on four of his first five attempts, including one that was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.  The Redskins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett blitzed all game long and Matt took a little time to adjust.  He had not been blitzed much in the first two games, but when he settled in, he returned to the level of play we had been accustomed to seeing the first two weeks.  The Lions passing attack was more down field oriented and they didn't run screen passes the was they had the previous two weeks.  Stafford's completion percentage was just under 60% and he missed a few throws this week that could have opened up the game a little more but all in all his play was steady and effective and it helped having Broyles and Fauria in the mix this week, and even Durham and Scheffler caught passes.  I didn't see one blatant drop this week by his supporting cast.  Matt was under pressure and hit often but that was by design of the Washington defense.  Stafford has proven his toughness over the last few seasons as he hung in the pocket and delivered the ball and led the lions to a huge win.

Running backs:  Reggie Bush was missed, but I think Joique Bell has proven he can be a feature back in this league.  Ideally though, Bush and Bell need to compliment one another because they both have unique skill sets and both poses the ability to make big plays.  Against Minnesota Bush had 25 touches and Bell only 11.  If you split those more evenly Bush will have a better chance to stay healthy throughout the year.  Joique possesses a great power/speed combination and has uncanny balance.  He is just a good football player, period.  Theo Riddick saw his first extended action, but was mostly a non factor.    

Wide Receivers:  Ryan Broyles, welcome back.  He didn't put up crazy numbers but he caught all three passes thrown his way, converted two first downs on drives that ended in points and was a nice option outside of Burleson and Calvin.  Speaking of Nate, he was fantastic and deserves player of the game honors.  He had two catches over 40 yards, providing the big play spark the Lions needed without Bush in the line up, and drawing some attention away from Calvin.  Calvin was in typical beast mode, when Detroit needed a big play they went to CJ including the touchdown at the end, surrounded by four defenders.  His numbers weren't gaudy but he makes things easier for everyone else.  Durham was targeted three times and actually came up with a huge 33 yards catch on the 4th quarter drive that help set up the Johnson touchdown.

Tight Ends:  I understand Tony Scheffler technically is a tight end but he is soft and cant block so why would we run the ball with him right at the point of attack.  Pettigrew is a great run blocker so keep him in for that, and put Fauria in when we throw.  The tight ends were mostly forgettable, outside of Fauria's touchdown reception, which now puts him at two touchdowns for the season, the only tight end on the roster to have caught a touchdown and he has the only play longer then 20 yards out of the tight end group.  Fauria should continue to see his work rate climb and Pettigrew should see his blocking work rate climb.

Offensive Line:  This group started the game on a low, allowing an untouched middle linebacker blitz up the middle to sack Stafford.  They were much better the rest of the way, as that was the only sack allowed.  Stafford was hit 10 times throughout the game but that will happen when a team blitzes on almost every play.  There were adequate running lanes and adequate protection to allow the lions play makers time to do what they do best.  This unit has come together nicely but will continue to be challenged week in and week out going forward against the Bears, Packers, Browns, Bengals, and Dallas before the bye week.  If they can continue to give Stafford enough time and open creases for Bush and Bell to run through, the Lions will have a shot to win every week. 

Defensive Line:  I think most of the critics have been silenced when it comes to the Lions first round draft choice Ziggy Ansah.  Ansah's play has shown that he is not a project and that he's not just pass rushing specialist but that he has the size, strength, speed, motor, and football instincts to be as complete a defensive end as there is in football.  Obviously it helps having a monster on the inside named Suh who has consistently blown up the middle of opposing offensive lines this year but to Ziggy's credit, he's making plays.  The lions were dealt a blow when Jason Jones went down with a season ending injury but they will now get a look at their other rookie defensive end Devin Taylor.  Willie young has produced consistent pressure this season and just needs to continue to make smart plays.  He almost horse-collared Robert Griffin on Chris Houston's interception which would have negated a turnover for a second consecutive week. 

Linebackers:  Another good game for DeAndre Levy, he led the team with 9 tackles but Tulloch and Palmer were quiet yet again.  This group hasn't been great but they have been part of a defensive unit that is allowing a league low 26% third down conversions against, getting off the field and getting the ball back to the offense.  Three of the five interceptions this year have been from the linebackers and the Lions currently sit plus three in turnover margin which is top 5 in the league.  Still there are breakdowns with over pursuit when running backs cut back or teams run reverses, the linebackers are often times out of position.   

Defensive Backs:  The secondary was average today, and we could be talking about a completely different outcome if Robinson holds onto the ball cleanly in the end zone as he beat Mathis deep.  The Lions have built their team dependent on pressure up front, so many times a play is made in the secondary only  when the quarter back has little or no time to throw.  Houston was solid and Mathis was average in taking over for Slay, who did not see a defensive snap.  Delmas played his best game of the season and was able to play every defensive snap.  The Redskins recorded 21 passing first downs, too often there were men wide open for Griffin to throw to.  The passing game in Chicago next week will be much more similar to the attack the Lions faced in Arizona with a pocket passer and big physical receivers.         

Special Teams:  Specials teams was still not nearly clean enough to beat a better team like the Bears or Packers.  There were still penalties on returns and Martin's kickoff that went out of bounds set up points for the Redskins on a drive that would have other wise ended in a punt.  Akers made two easy kicks and the punting game has been solid all year. 

Game notes:
  • After three games, the Lions are right in the middle of the pack with their defensive numbers, 18th in total yards allowed and 16th in total points given up.  They are the bottom in sacks however, totaling just 6.  That number is not indicative of the amount of pressure the defensive line has applied thus far.
  • The Lions offense ranks 4th in total yards and 6th in points.  The lions are 2nd in passing yards, 26th in rushing.  No surprises there.
  • The lions are one of only 5 NFC teams with a winning record.  Seattle, New Orleans and Chicago are 3-0, while Dallas and Detroit are 2-1.
  • When CJ Mosley took off Alfred Morris' head with a tackle around the neck I was positive when I first saw it, it was Nick Fairley.  Definitely was not a face mask though.
  • Outside of the onside kick, the Lions best starting field position was their own 29.
  • Stafford threw short of the first down line to Broyles on a play very similar to the 4th down in Arizona the Lions did not convert, and the Lions did not convert this play either.

Next Week:  Lions return home to face undefeated division rival Chicago Bears with the top spot in the division up for grabs at Ford Field.

Monday, September 23, 2013

Tigers take wild weekend series vs. White Sox

Before we get started I want to give a big shout out to my mom as she travels to the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota today.  Our love,  thoughts, and prayers are with you.

The Tigers came into the weekend series with the White Sox with an outside chance of clinching the central division championship for the third straight year.  Lets break down how the games played out:

Game 1: Tigers 12, White Sox 5.
Max Scherzer finally converted win number 20 as the offense exploded against spot starter Dylan Axelrod, scoring 7 runs in the first
3 innings, spotting Max to a commanding lead.  The Tigers actually trailed 1-0 as the White Sox got on the board in the first inning when De Aza lead off with a double and advanced to third after a wild pitch allowed Ramirez to reach first base on strike three.  Conor Gillaspie's sac fly scored the run but Scherzer was helped out by Ramirez as he tried to steal second and took off too early and was tagged out in the rundown.  From there the Tigers took control, Axelrod just doesn't have good enough stuff to get the Tigers hitters out on any sort of consistent basis as the tigers tacked on the next seven runs to blow open the game.  White Sox manager Robin Ventura intentionally walked Victor Martinez twice in the game, but he probably should have just walked him all night as Martinez homered and singled in his other at-bats.  Every Tigers starter had at least one hit, Tori hunter lead the way with 4 hits and 3 runs driven in.  Prince Fielder continued his torrid September where he is hitting .387 for the month, having reached base in every game but one.  He has 7 doubles in 75 at-bats.  While the offense was electric, the biggest story of the game goes back to Max's quest for the Cy Young.  He has one scheduled start left to make against Minnesota with a chance to pick up his 21st win of the year against just 3 loses.  If he keeps his era under 3.00 with the amount of strike outs he has racked up and with no other pitcher really taking the lead from him over the past 3 weeks as Scherzer labored to pick up his 20th victory, Max should be the odds on favorite to win the AL Cy Young award.  Just last season there was a 20 game winner in each league that did not win the Cy Young as Jared Weaver and Gio Gonzalez both finished third in there respectively leagues.  While 20 wins certainly doesn't guarantee you the Cy Young, this year however, it should be enough to get max over the top.  at 12-3 Jim Leyland decided to empty his bench in the 7th and 8th innings. 

Game 2: Tigers 7, White Sox 6.
Game of the year!  I was going to bash Leyland for not bringing in Benoit in the top of the 9th to keep the game 3-0 with the heart
of the order due up when he had him warm, but things turned out all right in the end.  Had it only been 3-0, we most likely would have seen Addison Reed off the bat in the 9th and Nate Jones probably isn't out there to implode, so Leyland's decision paid off in hind sight.  Good job Skip.  First off, hats off to both Rick Porcello and Chris Sale, both starters were fantastic and efficient.  The bullpens however, not so much.  Jose Veras came in and gave up a run in the 8th and Bonderman relieved him and gave up three more in the 9th, staking the white Sox to a 6-0 lead heading into the bottom of the 9th.  In the 9th, Torii hunter lead off with a triple and came in to score after a Cabrera single.  Fielder followed by singling to left then Victor Martinez doubled down the right field line, scoring Cabrera, 6-2 White Sox.  Andy Dirks pinch hit for Tuiasosopo and took the first pitch he saw into the stands beyond the right field wall for a 3 run homerun.  6-5 White Sox.  Addison Reed took over for Jones who gave up 5 runs on 5 hits and recorded 0 outs in the 9th.  Reed proceeded to walk Infante, Avila and Jackson to load the bases.  Torii Hunter's sac fly tied the game at 6.  Miguel Cabrera was walked and Donnie veal came in and retired Fielder to end a wild 9th inning.  Benoit and Alburquerque were great for the Tigers in the 10th, 11th and 12th innings.  Infante played the hero after walks to Kelley, Martinez, and Dirks loaded the bases, Omar hit a grounder off the glove of White Sox pitcher Jake Perticka allowing the run to score from third and the Tigers walked off 7-6 winners.  Unbelievable comeback, great win for the Tigers.  I was a huge Randy Johnson fan as a kid, and Chirs Sale is the closest thing I have seen to the Big Unit, mostly because he is left handed with that wicked slider.  If Sale was throwing 98-99 with his fastball instead of 92-94, it would be scary.  At the time it was just a nice play but when you look back at the result, Matt Tuiasosopo made a diving catch in left field to end the threat in the 7th inning, keeping the game within reach.  Since the Boston meltdown, Alburquerque has been really good, not allowing an earned run in 6 innings spanning 6 appearances while striking out 7 and only allowing 3 base runners. 

Game 3: White Sox 6, Tigers 3.
Just twelve days ago, Chicago starter Erik Johnson faced the Tigers in his second big league start of his career and was punished by
one of the best offensive teams in baseball, giving up 6 runs and failing to make it out of the fourth inning.  Apparently he is a quick study as he allowed just two runs over six and two thirds this time around.  The Tigers put a lot of balls in play as Johnson only recorded one strike out, but he changed speeds effectively, located his fastball and got help from his usually suspect defense to pick up his second win since being called up in early September.  It felt like the Tigers were sleep walking through this game, and really they were lucky to have taken this series as the play didn't seem sharp over the weekend.  Infante committed his second error in two games and the usually reliable Austin Jackson misread a ball hit straight at him and the ball got over his head and scored two runs in the fifth to give the White Sox a 3-1 lead.  A lot of damage was done in this series by former tiger Avisail Garcia as he upped his average from .276 going into the series to .289 leaving Detroit, having collected 7 hits, 5 RBI's and a stolen base.  The tigers offense was quiet until Prince lifted off in the 4th inning to tie the score with a mammoth home run to left but Alex Avila was the only Tigers hitter to have any sustained success, going 3-3 with a double to add to his outstanding September numbers.  The bullpen was uninspiring as Leyland decided to go with the leftovers after the 12 inning comeback win the night before, as Evan Reed and Darin Downs came in to pitch the final four innings as the lead expanded to 6-1 in the 7th.  The Tigers had a chance in the 7th to cut into the 5 run deficit but Torii Hunter pinch hit and lined out with the bases loaded to end the threat.  The offense tried to start another 9th inning rally as Brayan Pena and Infante lead off with back to back hits but the rally fell well short tonight.  Anibal Sanchez wasn't as sharp today as he had been in previous starts but one thing I have noticed with him over his last few starts is that he is throwing to many pitches looking for the swing and miss, and if the hitter isn't fooled they simply take the pitch and work the count.  Sanchez threw 99 pitches in 5 innings today, 125 in 6 and a third innings his last start.  Those numbers equate to a 19.7 pitches per inning average, which is well over the 15-17 range for efficiency per inning.  He hasn't been bad so we are being picky, but we have come to expect a great performance every time out from this tigers starting rotation. 


Series notes:
  • I was looking at the Beane Count on ESPN.com and it was pretty interesting that in both the National and American Leagues all five teams that will make the playoffs in each league were ranked in the top 6 in their respective leagues in the Beane Count.  In the National league the team not making the playoffs is actually the 6th best team record wise, the Washington Nationals.  In the AL however its the Minnesota Twins, who are third to last record wise in the AL, and have scored the second fewest runs with the second worst era in the league.
  • Tigers pitching surrendered 11 walks in the 29 innings this series.  That's nearly a walk per game higher then their season average of 2.8 walks per game allowed.
  • Detroit pitching has also now given up 124 stolen bases, second most in the AL behind Boston.  But they have by far the worst caught stealing percentage, throwing out a league worse 18% of attempted stolen bases.
  • Tigers pitchers have now struck out 1353 batters, the AL record is 1383 and the overall record is 1404.  They have a great shot, needing just 8.5 strikeouts per game over the final 6 games.    
  • Miguel Cabrera sat out game three on Sunday with a sore groin.  He is listed as day to day.  If the Tigers win the division, they wont start the playoffs until the 4th of October, thats 12 days for Miggy to get healthy.
  • There were a lot of suspect calls this series.  Jackson hit a ball that looked like Danks may have caught but was ruled a hit.  Gillaspie was ruled to have beaten out a double play at first base but it looked like he was out on replay.  Alexei Ramirez was in a hurry to turn a double play, missed stepping on second base completely but the runner was still called out.  With how old fashion and stingy baseball is to change you would think getting the details correct would matter to them.
  • Magic number is still 2.

Next up:
The Tigers finish the last week of the season on the road with three games at Minnesota and three games at Miami.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Lions vs. Redskins week 3 preview and prediction

Same Old Lions. That's been the headline of the week in Detroit as the Lions did their best to lose the game last week in Arizona, a place they have struggled to win in my lifetime, and this week they go into Washington, a place they've never won in anyone's lifetime. While its hard to put your money on a team that is so self destructive, a win in Washington would have the Lions back on track with a home divisional game against the Bears on the horizon. If the Lions are going to pull off the upset over history, they are going to need more help from the offensive supporting cast.  Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson cant do it by themselves.  Washington has struggled its first two weeks in giving up over 1000 yards of offense and trailing by a combined score of 50-7 at halftime.  The Redskins then have to try and claw their way back into the game through the air, and they are not set up to win that way.  Despite their records last year I think Detroit is better on both sides of the ball again, and should win this game if talent was all that mattered.  However, Washington is desperate for a win to avoid a disastrous 0-3 start and they probably view the Lions as a team they can beat if they can hang around long enough for the Lions to make the mistake that will cost them the game.   Here are five keys to this weeks game.
 
Limit the redskins running game.
RG3 is one of the most explosive athletes in football when he's healthy.  Right now, either he is not as healthy as they claim or they just are being ultra cautious, but RG3 is not using his most effective weapon, his speed.   The lions cant let him have a break out performance if they want to win the game.  Alfred Morris is a load and the redskins use the zone blocking scheme Mike Shanahan has been using forever effectively, along with the read option with their dangerous quarterback.  If the redskins can pick up chunks of yardage on the ground and then move to play action, they become a dangerous offense.  If you force them into obvious passing situations, 3rd and long, playing from behind, etc. Griffin is not really equipped to beat you.  Nick Fairley's presence or lack there of could be a major determining factor as to which of these units is successful.  The Lions will have to be smart when applying pressure to RG3 and keep contain from the edge rushers because if the pocket collapses up the middle and he gets outside it could be six points.  The Lions are allowing just 2.48 yards per carry outside of Peterson's 78 yard score on the first play of the season.  If they keep the Redskins under four yards per carry they will be in great position to win. 

 
Detroit's offensive line vs. Washington's defensive front. 
The Redskins defense has been torched this year in its first two games, facing offense oriented teams in Philadelphia and Green Bay, and now the Lions.  If the Lions offensive line can continue to protect Stafford the way they have thus far and get back to opening up holes the way they did against Minnesota instead of the lack of running room in Arizona, the Lions offense will march up and down the field Sunday.  The Redskins have given up over 200 yards per game on the ground so far, so it will be important to stick with running the football the way the Lions did in their opening win.  The best part of the Redskins defense is their outside pass rush, they are top ten in the league right now with seven sacks with guys like Kerrigan and Orakpo leading the way but if you contain the rush the rest of the unit is below average as they are one of five teams in the league right now without an interception.

Catch the ball.
We are now going to transition into the "do everything better then you did last week" section of the program.  The Lions are dropping over 10 percent of their passes.  The Lions secondary pass catchers and play makers need to step up to take the pressure off of Calvin Johnson especially if Reggie Bush is unable to play with his injured knee.  Matthew Stafford has been terrific early this season but he needs help, and by help I mean just catch the balls that hit you in the hands.  If Bush, Edwards and Broyles are all potentially out this Sunday the Lions will have to get more creative with their formations and use Pettigrew, Scheffler and Fauria as well as Theo Riddick in the slot to create mismatches.  Riddick is an under rated asset in the route running and pass catching department and the Lions should find ways to utilize him if depth comes into play.  Bush says he wants to play but its becoming a question of even if he does play, will he last the whole game?  Washington's secondary is allowing teams to complete nearly 75 percent of their passes so it will be on the Lions to haul those balls in. 

Make your field goals.
It seems like a simple concept yet in the first two weeks of the season the Lions have a dropped hold, a missed attempt (unofficially 2), and a blocked attempt.  Not only does that hurt you on the scoreboard but it becomes a mental issue.  It's frustrating for the team to put the kicking unit in position to score points and then to come away with nothing time and again, momentum is everything.  I think I jinxed Akers last week as I said he would win the game with a late field goal and instead our kicking game was horrendous.  This has to be fixed, 11 of the first 33 games this season have been decided by 3 points or less. 


Penalties and third down conversions.
Detroit has forfeited a couple big plays, a ton of yardage, and field position due to stupid penalties mostly on special teams and defense.  The return game needs to be clean this week and the secondary needs to limit the big plays, including big plays given up through penalties.  Darius Slay has had a couple of "this isn't the preseason anymore" moments the last couple of weeks and is on the verge of losing his starting position to Rashean Mathis, though I would rather have Slay on the outside and Mathis replace Bentley as the nickel back, Bentley gambles too much and its embarrassing when teams target you not because they think they can beat you, but because they think you will beat yourself.  The Redskins have not been much better, being flagged for a combined 15 penalties for 140 yards in their opening two games.  Both the Lions and the Redskins have been terrible on third down, the Lions 8 of 24, the Redskins 5 of 21.  Which ever team best reverses these trends should come away with the victory.


Game notes:
  • Calvin Johnson has 153 yards, 10 catches and 2 touchdowns this season so far while Adrian Peterson has 193 yards on 44 carries with 2 touchdowns.
  • Reggie bush is questionable and will be a game time decision.  Nick Fairley is questionable but should be back and Jason Fox seems to still be out as is Patrick Edwards.  
  • Lions are 0-21 in Washington.
  • Only five teams have ever made the playoffs after starting 0-3.
  • Detroit is one of five teams to have allowed one or fewer sacks thus far.
  • Matthew Stafford is 5th in the NFL right now with a passer rating of 102.0.  He trails Manning, Rodgers, Rivers and Ryan.   
Prediction: 
I think the Lions are the more talented team but can they avoid the big mistake?  All the intangibles, however, point to the Redskins avoiding the 0-3 start at home against a team that doesn't overcome history often.  I obviously hope I'm wrong but Redskins 31, Lions 27. 

Friday, September 20, 2013

Tigers take 3 of 4 from September Mariners.

Detroit and Seattle haven't played since April 18th and the Mariners are trotting out two rookie starters so this is a team the Tigers are very unfamiliar with.  Let's take a look at the action from the four game set:

Game 1: Tigers 4, Mariners 2.
Rick Porcello has been on quite a roll.  He picked up his 13th win of the season with a six inning, 10 strikeout performance, only allowing one earned run.  It's only the second time in his career Porcello has fanned 10 or more hitters and the win was Porcello's 9th since July 1st, which ties him for the most in the majors in that time span.  Porcello is on pace for a career high in 6.96 strikeouts per nine innings and a career low .718 on base plus slugging which will give him a chance to get to 15 wins this season.  Rick has been commanding his fastball well and I think the addition of Iglesias was huge for guys like him and Doug Fister, as both get a lot of ground ball outs.  Iglesias saved a run in the first inning, coming out of nowhere to make a leaping catch on a line drive hit back up the middle behind second base, with two outs and a runner on third.  The Tigers got on the board first, in the bottom of the first when Torii Hunter went first to third on a Miguel Cabrera single, then scored after a Joe Suanders uncorked a wild pitch.  The problem Porcello has had against left handers in his career is because left handers tend to like the ball down in the zone more then righties do.  Almonte took a sinking fastball on the inside part of the plate and drove it into the stands to tie the game at one in the 3rd.  Both starting pitchers took over the next few innings.  Saunders limited the Tigers to just one hit from the 3rd through 5th innings.  Porcello threw 70 strikes out of his 105 pitches and finished with a flurry, striking out the side in the 6th inning, but was in line for a no decision unless the tigers could score in the bottom half of the 6th.  After an intentional walk to Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder followed with a base hit and Victor Martinez singled up the first base line to score Cabrera and give the Tigers and Porcello a lead they wouldn't relinquish.  Infante would single later in the inning to score fielder to add an insurance run.  Torii Hunter drove in another run in the 7th to finish the scoring for the Tigers.  Drew Smyly threw a 1-2-3 7th inning but did allow a double-single combination to plate a run for the Mariners in the 8th.  Benoit came in for the 9th and recorded his 21st save of the year.


Game 2:  Tigers 6, Mariners 2.
The first 3 innings in my notes seemed to read easy 1-2-3 inning, easy 1-2-3 inning...this game was on pace to be done in less then two hours.  Then lasted nearly four.  The Tigers threatened early as Jackson singled to lead off the game, then stole second before Cabrera was walked but three fly ball outs ended the threat.  Anibal Sanchez was working it again early, recording seven strikeouts in the first four innings.  The rookie Maurer pitched a nice game giving up just two runs in five innings while striking out six.  His slider is tough, he just needs to develop a change up to go with his 93-95 mph fastball.  the fourth inning is when the action picked up as Don Kelley turned on a fastball and deposited it into the right field stands to give the Tigers a 1-0 lead.  It didn't last long as ageless 41 year old Ibanez hit a solo shot to tie the game 1-1 in the 6th.  The bottom of the 6th provided a huge moment for Tigers fans, a moment bigger then just taking the lead in a somewhat meaningless regular season game.  Miguel Cabrera hit his first homerun since late August, driving an outside fastball the opposite way over the right field fence.  Cabrera has been battling a handful of nagging injuries over the last month that have limited his effectiveness and production.  It seems like he began moving and feeling better at the beginning of this home stand and he seems to be having fun on the baseball field again.  If Cabrera can regain his pre injury form as the Tigers head into the playoffs, they will be very dangerous.  Cabrera's homerun gave Sanchez the opportunity to pick up the win but he gave up a leadoff triple to Saunders in the 7th who came home to score when pinch hitter Morales doubled three batters later.  Alburquerque came in with the go ahead run on third base and proceeded to induce a pop up to short and then strike out Gutierrez to end the threat.  The Tiger's bounced back in the bottom half of the 7th with as Avila lead off with his first triple of the season followed by Iglesias being hit by a pitch.  Jackson grounded into a fielders choice as Avila was thrown out at home, but it allowed Iglesias to get to third and he would use his speed to score on a shallow line drive sac fly from Torii Hunter, 3-2 Tigers.  In his defense, Phil Coke should have been out of the inning after inducing a tailor made double play ball that Iglesias of all people booted, but the two walks to load the bases had nothing to do with anything but Coke's lack of control.  He was generously booed as he left the mound.  Alverez came on, bases loaded, 3-2 bottom of the 8th and got Zunino to ground into the inning ending double play.  The tigers created some separation tacking on three runs in the 8th and Alverez came back for the 9th to seal the win.


Game 3:  Mariners 8, Tigers 0.
Jim Leyland trotted out the "C" team with Kelley, Tuiasosopo, and Perez all in the lineup against Hisashi Iwakuma, who has arguably been Seattle's best pitcher this year.  The results showed as the offense was completely overmatched, the Tigers were shut out for the 11th time this season.  It's hard to pin this loss on Justin Verlander considering the help he was given offensively but that's baseball.  Verlander was good not great.  He missed the strike zone too often away to lefties with his fastball and change up, and was not getting any borderline calls from home plate umpire Phil Cousins, who's strike zone was erratic the entire evening.  Verlander's pitch count was high all night, but he still went 7 innings, gave up only 4 hits and threw 66% of his pitches for strikes.  Offense in baseball often is more about when and the type of hit rather then sheer quantity.  If you get 9 hits in an game, one each inning, you probably wont score as many runs as if all 9 hits were in one inning.  A walk-double-single combination plated two runs in the first inning for Seattle.  Verlander also gave up a solo homerun to Smoak in the 6th as he drove a fastball down and away out to left.  It was not a bad pitch, the hitters get paid too.  Ultimately Verlander's effort made little difference as the bullpen came in and made a mockery of the late innings.  Phil Coke's command was much better tonight, unfortunately the Mariners took some good swings and Coke was charged with four runs in his two-thirds of an inning.  He left to more boos.  Alburquerque didn't help his bullpen mate out as he launched a wild pitch allowing two runs to score.  Luke Putkonen came in for the ninth and gave up a blast to Gutierrez to round out the scoring for Seattle.  This game was more about the dominance of Iwakuma and the inability of the Tigers to come up with a big hit when the opportunity presented itself.  In the bottom of the first inning, Don Kelley reached on an infield single and Prince Fielder doubled down the left field line.  After an intentional walk to Victor Martinez loaded the bases, Matt Tuiasosopo struck out to end the inning, a base hit there and this game could have been dramatically different.  Fast forward to the 4th inning and after a Martinez single and a Tuiasosopo walk, Alex Avila reached on an error to load the bases once more.  Hernan Perez proceeded to ground into an inning ending double play.  Iwakama went on to retire 11 straight spanning the 5th through 8th innings.  Game over.   

Game 4:  Tigers 5, Mariners 4.
Doug Fister became the third Tigers pitcher this series to record at least ten strikeouts as the Tigers stole this one late.  Fister went seven and two thirds, giving up nine hits and four runs but kept the Tigers in the game long enough for the offense to come through as Doug picked up his 13th win of the season.  The Tigers got some help from home plate umpire Ron Kulpa on a bang-bang play at home, again involving Prince Fielder.  Victor Martinez scorched a double down the left field line with Prince at first base, and Mariners catcher Mike Zunino appeared to miss the tag as Fielder slid around the wide throw to the plate.  However, upon further review it looked as though Zunino tagged Fielder in the face before he touched home plate but the tag was shielded from Ron Kulpa's field of vision.  Ultimately the run counted and the Tigers took a 5-4 lead but two major issues resonate from the play.  Instant replay should be able to be used for close plays at home, much in the way the NFL system works, make the call on the field, change it if and only if there is indisputable video evidence.  If you want to implore some sort of challenge system for the managers, that's fine too.  We need to be getting these calls correct especially if Tom Brookens is going to continue to send Fielder running first to home because regardless of the call, he was thrown out again.  The Mariners got on the board in the first inning, a two out rally was punctuated by Raul Ibanez, as he connected for a third consecutive single in the inning to give Seattle a 1-0 lead.  That lead was short lived as Torii Hunter took a belt high fastball from rookie James Paxson out to left field.  The Tigers took the lead later in the inning as Victor Martinez doubled off the wall scoring Fielder for a 2-1 Tigers lead.  The Tigers added a run as Paxson walked Omar Infante with the bases load in the 3rd but the young lefty settled down after that and pitched five innings giving up just five hits and was in line for the win after Dustin Ackley's three run home run in the 5th put the Mariners up 4-3.  The lead stood until Hunter led off the 7th with a double to right center and Fielder's single off lefty Charlie Furbush drove him home, and set up the Martinez at bat and subsequent play at the plate.  Drew Smyly came in for a one out hold in the 8th in relief of Fister and Benoit came in for a 1-2-3 9th for his 22nd save of the season.


Tigers starting pitchers have been outstanding the last thirteen games, giving up three runs or less in ten of those starts since being pummeled 20-4 in Boston.  It's no coincidence the Tigers are 8-5 in that stretch, even as the offense has struggled a bit, the starters have given the team a chance to win nearly every game.  Come playoff time all you can ask is for your starter to go six plus innings and give up three runs or less.  From there it comes down to timely hitting, defensive execution, and your bullpen.  Benoit has been great at the back end but bridging the gap from starter to closer should prove the most troublesome, the Tigers could be getting Bruce Rondon back soon however and that will be huge in October.  It is looking increasingly likely that the tigers will play Oakland. The tigers have faired well against the A's in the playoffs, having beaten them the last two times the club has made it to the world series.  The Tigers trail the A's by one game right now for the second best record in the AL, and home field advantage in there likely meeting.  Oakland won the season series 4-3 so they would hold the tie breaker if the teams end with the same record.  The A's host the twins, then travel to the Angels and Mariners to end the season. 

Series notes:
  • Jose Iglesias was hit by a pitch in game 4 on his left hand and was immediately taken for x-rays.  The results were negative and Iglesias is day to day with a contusion.
  • Statistically, the Red Sox and Tigers are easily the two best offenses in all of baseball and both teams have been shut out 11 times this year.
  • 42% of the outs recorded by Tigers pitching in this series were strikeouts. 
  • Fister and Porcello both had their swing back fastball working.  That pitch had a ton of movement for both guys.  They also both were victimized when they left their off speed pitches, change ups and curve balls, up in the zone.
  • Seattle could have the makings of a great rotation next year, with Iwakuma and Felix Hernandez as the headliners backed up by then second year guys Paxon and Maurer, as both showed great potential in the series.
  • Before September, the Tigers were averaging 1.18 home runs per game, their worst month was April where they averaged .92 homeruns per game.  So far in September they are at .59 HR per game.
  • What was most baffling to me about the Tigers facing Iwakuma is watching Detroit hitters swing through 90 mph fastballs like they were 98-100 mph.
  • Favorite play of the series was a foul ball hit towards the right field stands.  As Prince gave chase he crashed into the railing and stole a chip from a fans nachos.  Classic Prince.
  • Magic number is at 4.        
Up next:  The Tigers welcome the White Sox for a three game weekend series.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Lions find ways to lose to Cardinals, 25-21.

Last season, the Detroit Lions defeated the St. Louis Rams in a sloppy game at Ford Field, then went on the road at Tennessee and lost to a team they should have beat after repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot.  Fast forward to 2013, the Lions opened the season last week with a sloppy home win, and followed it up with a road defeat at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals, 25-21, after repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot.  Special teams was again an achilles heel for the Lions as David Akers missed not one, but two attempts to give the Lions a 3-0 lead, after a running into the kicker call moved the ball 5 yards closer.  In the fourth quarter, his FG attempt was blocked, and if all the Lions do is execute those two kicks, they most likely win the game.  It seems simple but for Detroit, nothing is ever that simple.  Last week the Lions were able to overcome their errors but not today.  In what has become the Lions trademark, they had a turnover erased by a penalty, and I believe it was absolutely the biggest play of the game .  Rookie defensive end Ziggy Ansah sacked and stripped Carson Palmer and Willie Young recovered the ball on Arizona's 26 yard line, with the lions up 21-16 with 2 minutes to go in the third quarter.  The problem was that Willie Young was called for an illegal use of hands to the face, negating what would have been the Lions second forced turnover of the quarter, and giving the offense a chance to have a short field for once, instead of starting inside their own 10 yard line like they did most of the game.  The Lions average starting position for their 12 drives was the 14 yard line.  That's a lot to ask of your offense to go the length of the field every time.  The Lions defense didn't play poorly, but the loss of Nick Fairley was evident as the pass rush lacked consistent push and the running lanes up the middle were not closed tight enough.  Suh did his part but in order for the secondary to hold up, the defensive line needs to create more pressure and Palmer ,too many times, was able to sit cleanly in the pocket.  In the end, this was just the Lions doing what the Lions do, find a way to lose.  Let's breakdown each position group:

Quarterback:
Stafford came out hot in the first half, completing 17 of 21 passes with two touchdowns, both to Calvin.  He had the offense humming along against a very good Arizona defense, using screens, play action, bootlegs and lots of quick slants to keep the cardinals off balance.  The bullet he threw into an impossibly tight window for Calvin's first touchdown was incredible, and I thought it was intercepted when I saw it live.  The tempo and body language of the entire offense seemed to change in the second half after the Reggie Bush fumble on the exchange inside their own ten yard line.  Stafford did not complete a pass in the 3rd quarter and was just 7 of 15 after the break.  The Lions were unable to throw the ball down the field, whether it was pressure on Stafford or lack of an open receiver, Stafford did not get a lot of help from his supporting cast today.  In a vacuum, Stafford played a nice game, unfortunately quarterbacks are judged on wins and losses and the lions had the ball needing a touchdown to win with 2 minutes left and Stafford didn't come through. 


Running backs:
One thing that is quite clear after two weeks, Arizona's defense is much better then Minnesota's.  The Lions weren't able to open many running lanes for Reggie Bush or Joique Bell and the Lions only managed 49 yards on the ground as a team.  Detroit ran the ball enough to stay balanced but the Cardinals almost looked geared to stop the run, relying on their talented secondary to get the job done with a single high safety.  Reggie Bush ran too east and west again this week, after he himself commented on wanting to run more north and south this week.  Joique Bell had a couple nice runs but again there wasn't much room for him to get started.  both backs were solid again this week catching the ball out of the backfield, though Bell had a couple of drops that need to get cleaned up.


Wide receivers:
With Broyles inactive again, Patrick Edwards exiting the game with an ankle injury, and Reggie Bush out with his injured knee, the pass catching options were running thin in the second half.  Still, I am pleading with Stafford to not throw the ball to Kris Durham or Brandon Pettigrew again, unless he is looking for an automatic incompletion.  I would rather force the ball to Calvin 30 times a game then throw it to either one of those guys.  I'm partly kidding but the Lions wide receivers were set up to have a collective big day if they could beat man to man coverage but they couldn't get free.  Johnson and Burleson were targeted eight times apiece, and the only other receiver that was thrown to was Durham, twice, for two incompletions.  Yes, Calvin is a beast and Nate has stepped up and made some big plays but two games into the season and this group looks really thin right now, that was a major concern coming out of the preseason.  Might be time to hit the waiver wire.  Calvin's catch and run on the slant was a thing of beauty.  My one positive for the day.


Tight Ends:
Pettigrew had a pair of nice plays today to go along with two drops on "catches in traffic" as Jim Schwartz would call them and a missed block on a reverse that cost the Lions eight yards to start the game, so all in all it was a typical Pettigrew performance.  No fumbles though!  Apparently an increased work load for Joseph Fauria means going from playing to not playing?  I was very disappointed in the production and the usage of this group of players, considering the Lions had a desperate need for playmakers through the air today and the only person targeted was Pettigrew.  That's on the coaching staff. 


Offensive Line:
The Arizona front seven was a different beast compared to the Vikings last week.  The Vikings were without their veteran nose tackle Kevin Williams, and Allen and Robison are more crafty rushers then pure physically imposing forces.  The Arizona defense re-established the line of scrimmage into the Detroit backfield and the Lions didn't have nearly the effect running the football this week.  The pass protection was good enough, Stafford was sacked just once, but that was due to great coverage, and hit only twice.  This group did enough to give the Lions a chance to win, and didn't hurt the team with any stupid penalties. 


Defensive line: 
The loss of Nick Fairley up the middle really was a big time blow for the Lions as Mendenhall was able to find running room up the middle and Palmer was not nearly pressured enough.  Suh had a great game, Ziggy Ansah looks to be the real deal, and even Willie Young made some nice plays, but again the penalty nullifying the turnover was detrimental.  The reason this group is so tough is that it's nearly impossible for both Suh and Fairly to be doubled at the same time, but with Fairey out, you can count on Suh getting a double team on every snap and lets face it, CJ Mosley and Justin Bannan are no Nick Fairely.  The edge rushers applied pressure at times but didn't get home to Palmer as often as they needed to.  The defense up front again did enough to give the team a chance to win, holding the Cardinals to only a 58% completion percentage and just 3.5 yards per carry.


Linebackers:
DeAndre Levy got caught up in coverage with Darius Slay in the first half allowing Arizona's rookie running back Andre Ellington to slip out of the backfield on a wheel route and complete an easy pitch and catch from Palmer for one of the two Cardinal touchdowns.  However, this weeks version of pick six by Deandre stayed on the board as Palmer was pressured into throwing the ball right to Levy and the Detroit outside linebacker took it to the house for the only points the Lions were able to muster up in the second half.  Tulloch was a no show in the first half but made a few nice plays clogging up the running game in the 3rd and 4th quarters.  Ashlee Palmer was exposed this week by Carson palmer and Larry Fitzgerald in pass coverage on the Cardinals first play from scrimmage as the Detroit linebacker bit hard on the play fake and was unable to stay with Fitzgerald as he crossed the field.  Other then that, the line backers played well enough to help the lions win the game.


Defensive Backs:
Its not accurate to say the secondary was bad.  Let's single out the player who Arizona was singling out because they knew they could get him to commit pass interference penalties.  Bill Bentely was terrible.  Even if I give him a pass on the interference on Fitzgerald because I thought it was a bad call, guys get hands tangled up all the time, and it was no worse then the amount of contact Peterson had on CJ on the Lions final drive.  However, the penalty in the 4th quarter at the goal line where he just flat out doesn't attempt to turn and play the ball is inexcusable.  Bentley also missed a tackle on a dump off to Mendenhall that ended up going for a 20 yard gain and was flagged for a special teams holding penalty (more fun on this topic later, I promise!).  Chris Houston was solid and Mathis made a couple nice tackles and a pass breakup.  Slay got caught up with DeAndre Levy on the Ellington touchdown, hard to say who was at fault on that one.  Glover Quin played an excellent game from the safety position, he was around the football all game long, making tackles and breaking up passes.


Special Teams:
Where oh where do we begin?  We've already discussed the two missed field goals and how we lost by five points, so lets move on to the next special teams blunder and that would be the penalties.  Two holding penalties on returns that backed the Lions up inside their ten yard line, creating terrible field position all game long.  And last but not least is the return game.  I would personally like to ask Michael Spurlock if there is something in the water that makes Detroit Lions return men lose focus?  He almost ran out of then back into the end zone, nearly causing a safety, then later on a punt return he caught the ball then started running backwards inside his ten yard line.  I don't get it, why do we even have a return man, why don't we just let the ball bounce every time?  It seems safer.  On the flip side, Sam Martin was awesome on kickoffs and directional punting with excellent hang time today. 


Game Notes:
  • A weird sequence on the Lions first drive of the game where an illegal substitution negated a play, but it was never explained and I thought the lions were accidently given an extra down.
  • The Lions ran a nice play action bootleg and Stafford dropped the ball off quickly to Pettigrew and as he was rumbling down the field I almost just expected him to fumble when the Arizona defenders hit him, its not a good feeling with the ball in his hands.
  • I'm not going to sit here and pretend that anyone can just walk off the street and make a 47 yard field goal, but it just always seems to be the Lions that cant figure these things out.
  • In the first quarter, Arizona was backed up 1st and 20 following a holding penalty, they came up a yard short of the first down by a full yard and the officials decided to measure when I could see they weren't close from my couch 3,000 miles away.
  • The Lions ran the ball with Bush from the shotgun with power action, the same play they ran against Minnesota inside the ten yard line on Reggie's first of two reviewed non touchdowns last week and both times I thought his split in relationship to the quarterback was odd, he lines up a half step wider and deeper then usual in the gun.  It's pretty easy to see.
  • Martin's hang time on his punts allowed the coverage units to bottle up Patrick Peterson as he was a non factor in the return game.
  • Peterson did however complete and catch a pass on offense.  His reverse pass seemed like an absolute broken play but it was a very unique and risky design for just a 17 yard gain.
  • Chris Houston's pass break up running down the sideline step for step with Floyd was textbook.
  • The play where Reggie Bush injured his knee was actually a great play designed to get Bush isolated on a linebacker, creating a mismatch the Lions didn't have in the second half as the offense was shut out.
  • There were a few more really nice play designs on the same drive.  The quick inside slant to Burleson where he lines up behind another receiver and uses him as a de facto screen was really nice and then the touchdown to Calvin on a crossing route to pick the defender was the type of creative play designs I didn't see out of Linehan last year. 
  • Suh had a couple of bone crushing hits breaking through the line and stuffing the running backs in the backfield.  I was surprised Ellington held onto the ball and got up after Suh flattened him in the 3rd quarter. 
  • Lions defense did a nice job limiting the cardinals to a FG after the Bush fumble inside the 10 to start to third quarter.  That's all you can really ask of them in that situation.
  • The lions secondary showed great awareness to force Michael Floyd out off the back of the end zone before he could come down even if he did catch the ball.
  • I like Joique Bell as a pass catching back, but when he's lining up as your 4th wide receiver there's a depth problem at the receiver position. 
  • In my season long prediction I had the Lions beating Arizona and losing at Washington in these opening two road games and though they lost to the Cardinals, they can still be 2-1 if the win in Washington next week.  The Redskins will be desperate for a win though after falling to the Eagles and Packers in the first two weeks.

Next week:  1-1 Lions at 0-2 Washington